754
FXUS63 KILX 220815
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
315 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1032MB HIGH ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WHILE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED
FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO TEXAS. DESPITE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING E/NE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES, AMPLE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW BREAKS
IN THE LOW OVERCAST...MOST NOTABLY ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AND
ALONG I-55 FROM CHICAGO TO LINCOLN. GIVEN CONTINUED E/NE FLOW,
MOST CAMS SHOW WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ACROSS INDIANA
SPILLING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF I-55
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING APPEARS LIKELY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN IOWA SLOWLY TRACKS
EASTWARD, A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCAPES WILL REMAIN BELOW
100J/KG, THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/FORCING AND
RRFS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6-7C/KM, HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, WITH LOWER 70S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70.
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT,
PERSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL CREATE A CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER FORECAST. WHILE
PREVIOUS THINKING SUGGESTED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, THE LATEST DATA
INDICATES THE LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE AND/OR
SPREADING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE KILX CWA. AS A
RESULT, THINK PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY WITH CLOUDY SKIES FURTHER EAST. DUE TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/EAST OF I-57.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE SLOWLY PUSH READINGS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER THAT, A
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FEATURING
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS A RESULT, IT
APPEARS A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IS IN
STORE FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT SPI AND DEC. FURTHER NORTH
ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR, CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT
PIA/BMI/DEC, BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. CMI HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF GETTING INTO THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS WHILE
PIA/BMI ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page