895
FXUS63 KILX 221701
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1201 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR CEDAR RAPIDS
IA. EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION, EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MORNING CAM'S ARE STARTING TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY, THOUGH THEY DON'T REALLY SHOW
ANY SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD PUSH JUST YET. POP'S HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-55 THROUGH THE
MORNING. WHILE SOME SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE,
THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS CEILINGS RISE.
LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS IS IN PLACE, WITH SOME BRIEF EROSION
TAKING PLACE THE LAST COUPLE HOURS NEAR CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE.
THIS SHOULD FILL IN SOON AS ANOTHER STRATOCUMULUS DECK ADVECTS
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT BELOW EARLIER
PROJECTIONS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1032MB HIGH ANCHORED OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WHILE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED
FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO TEXAS. DESPITE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING E/NE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES, AMPLE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW BREAKS
IN THE LOW OVERCAST...MOST NOTABLY ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AND
ALONG I-55 FROM CHICAGO TO LINCOLN. GIVEN CONTINUED E/NE FLOW,
MOST CAMS SHOW WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ACROSS INDIANA
SPILLING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF I-55
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING APPEARS LIKELY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER EASTERN IOWA SLOWLY TRACKS
EASTWARD, A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCAPES WILL REMAIN BELOW
100J/KG, THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/FORCING AND
RRFS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6-7C/KM, HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, WITH LOWER 70S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70.
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT,
PERSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL CREATE A CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER FORECAST. WHILE
PREVIOUS THINKING SUGGESTED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, THE LATEST DATA
INDICATES THE LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE AND/OR
SPREADING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE KILX CWA. AS A
RESULT, THINK PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED TO THE ILLINOIS
RIVER VALLEY WITH CLOUDY SKIES FURTHER EAST. DUE TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/EAST OF I-57.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE SLOWLY PUSH READINGS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER THAT, A
BLOCKING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FEATURING
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AS A RESULT, IT
APPEARS A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IS IN
STORE FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
STILL SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT
MIDDAY, THOUGH THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LIMITED
CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVERALL, CEILINGS NEAR 6-8KFT
WILL PREVAIL INTO EVENING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF CEILINGS
NEAR OR BELOW 2,000 FEET WILL PUSH WESTWARD, POTENTIALLY
REACHING KCMI AS EARLY AS 01-02Z AND KSPI/KBMI TOWARD 09-10Z.
HREF PROBABILITIES OF CEILINGS BELOW 1,000 FEET ARE MAINLY
CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF KCMI 12-15Z (ABOUT 40-50%) AND BEAR
WATCHING IN FUTURE UPDATES. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
UPDATE...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART
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