639
FXUS63 KILX 230501
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1201 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER SHOULD
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
- OVERALL, A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUTUMN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
FALL BEGINS IN A FEW HOURS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS GIVE IT THAT FALL FEELING. WITH SHOWERS
PERSISTING NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE UPPER 50S.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 70 IN A FEW AREAS. OVERALL
THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS RAIN ESPECIALLY WELL,
THOUGH THE HRRR SUGGESTS IT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST
OF DUBUQUE, AND THIS LOW SHOULD TIGHTEN UP A BIT AS IT DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SLUG OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST
BEGINNING THIS EVENING WITHIN THE CIRCULATION, PERSISTING
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY PROMINENT DRY
LAYER BETWEEN 5-8KFT, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD PROBABLY BE
MORE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE
IN EASTERN ILLINOIS, AS SOUNDINGS FURTHER WEST HAVE A SHALLOWER
DEPTH OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WITH THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD BACK A BIT, THOUGH SOME
LOWER 70S CAN'T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE SOME SUNSHINE DOES
OCCUR.
OVERALL, THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK LOOKS RATHER TAME, AS A
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER OFF THE EAST COAST SLOWS WEST-EAST
PROGRESSION OF ANY STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC, NORTH OF THE
STORM, WILL KEEP US IN AN EASTERLY FLOW, KEEPING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AT BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK TO FULLY
DISLODGE THIS EASTERN LOW, AT WHICH WE START GETTING MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. LREF PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
GREATER THAN 80 DEGREES RANGE FROM 30-60% MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN A MODEST NORTHEAST BREEZE
AROUND 10 KT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, SPREADING WEST
OVERNIGHT. OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE BUT
ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO REMAIN VFR. PIA HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF STAYING IN THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CEILINGS WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SCATTER/LIFT BACK TO VFR FROM THE WEST
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH DAYLIGHT FOR CONDITIONS AT DEC AND CMI TO IMPROVE
THAT FAR EAST, THUS THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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