012
FXUS63 KILX 231845
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
145 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER MESSY/CONVOLUTED
PATTERN WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA. A LARGE RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS ALSO SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THE 12Z
ILX SOUNDING SHOWED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SATURATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS BUT THE COLUMN THEN DRIES OUT ABOVE 700MB. THE UPPER LOW
AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS AROUND 2-4KFT. EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE EVEN A FEW
MPING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE GIVEN SOME WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF CLOUD
ICE. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGH FRIDAY: LATEST HREF/REFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
MORE CLOUDS VERSUS SUN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO SLIDE EAST AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. OTHER THAN A VERY ROGUE AREA OF DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODELS WHICH KEEPS
HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE NBM WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING
THE LOW 70S EACH AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWS
AND THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
LOW WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES: WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL ENERGY LOOKS TO SLIDE UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE ACROSS MISSOURI DURING THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, DRIER/STABLE AIR WILL PREVAIL
OVER ILLINOIS WHICH WILL INHIBIT MUCH PRECIP FROM MAKING IT VERY
FAR EAST INTO THE STATE. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS GENERALLY
SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT INTO THE WESTERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE A 15-30%
CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS SATURDAY. CLOUDS ON SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH SOME AREAS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH THAT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AROUND NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: IN BETWEEN
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF
ANY RAIN CHANCES WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLES
ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NBM POPS ARE
ALREADY IN THE 50-60% RANGE AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS. AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS GO, THE
ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE IS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING
ANOMALOUS AT THIS TIME AND THE AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED IN ANY
HAZARD/THREAT AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MOST AREAS, CLOUD BASES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.5KFT TO 3KFT THIS AFTERNOON. BASES SHOULD DROP EVEN
LOWER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT CMI AND DEC
WHERE THERE IS EVEN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DROPPING DOWN INTO
IFR (800FT-1000FT) BY 12Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 12KTS WITH SOME BRIEF 18-20KT GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN BETWEEN ANY CLOUD BREAKS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BURCHFIELD
DISCUSSION...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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