580
FXUS63 KILX 251736
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY: EXPECT STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S AND
ONLY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES.
- WARMING TREND MIDWEEK: TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RISE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F.
- HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: THE PRIMARY WEATHER
HAZARD ARRIVES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM BRINGING
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TO EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
PONDING OF ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BLOCKING HIGH, CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL
SEE STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WHILE A
NOR'EASTER SLOWLY MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID-70S, ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES.
BY TUESDAY EVENING, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. GUIDANCE PREDOMINANTLY SUGGESTS
THIS FEATURE WILL MERGE WITH THE TROPICAL REMNANTS OF POLO. IF
THIS SCENARIO HOLDS, DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS NEARING 80F.
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING WITHIN A
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY ROUND OF IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION IS
PROJECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS APPEAR MARGINAL,
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
POLO UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ACROSS THE MID-
LATITUDES. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A 20-40% PROBABILITY
OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AREAS OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY NEAR AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KBMI-KSPI. MVFR CEILING
PROBABILITIES SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH THERE IS AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...MJA
DISCUSSION...MJA
AVIATION...AAT
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