974
FXUS63 KILX 252344
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW-IMPACT WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
- NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO
EXCEED 2 INCHES, WHICH MAY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
PERSISTENT RADAR ECHOES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS, SAVE FOR A
TENTH OR SO NEAR LONDON MILLS (FULTON COUNTY). THE RAIN HAS BEEN
BATTLING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST, AS WELL AS A
NOTABLE DRY LAYER ALOFT BETWEEN ABOUT 850 AND 700 MB. POINTS
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER HAVE MANAGED TO MOISTEN THAT DRY
LAYER THE MOST AND STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NORTH-SOUTH DEFORMATION AXIS,
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY PRIMARILY WEST OF I-55 AND GRADUALLY
MOVING TO ROUGHLY A BLOOMINGTON-EFFINGHAM LINE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE ELONGATED BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST BETWEEN A WESTERN US TROUGH AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER LOW-IMPACT AND RELATIVELY
DRY.
THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS
THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY, POTENTIALLY PICKING UP TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM NOW-HURRICANE POLO AS IT DOES SO. A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY
WITH PERHAPS MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS TRACKING ALONG IT
COULD BE A RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAIN SETTING UP SOMEWHERE IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP
THAT FEATURES A DEEPER CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US, AND A GROUP THAT FEATURES A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE NORTHERN STREAM GROUP HAS A HIGHER AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT EITHER WAY THERE
IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL IL
AIRPORTS EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY NEAR SPI. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z/7 PM SAT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH 8-12K FT BASES THIS EVENING TO SCATTERED OUT NE AT
BMI AND CMI EARLY OVERNIGHT AND AT DEC AND PIA LATE
TONIGHT/DAYBREAK AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE ENE. SPI
LIKELY REMAINS IN BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY, AND
SOME MODELS SHOWING THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY WORKING BACK
NE TOWARD PIA AND DEC BY END OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS NEXT 24 HOURS, EAST TO NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND
EAST TO ESE 4-8 KTS ON SATURDAY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...AAT
DISCUSSION...AAT
AVIATION...07
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