513
FXUS63 KILX 260452
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW-IMPACT WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
- NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO
EXCEED 2 INCHES, WHICH MAY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FORECAST GENERALLY LOOKS ON TRACK TONIGHT, WITH SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER. ISOLATED VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES HAD DISSIPATED DURING EARLY EVENING WITH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS GIVING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES. 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING IL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY CONTINUING A
FAIRLY LIGHT EAST TO NE FLOW INTO CWA. SOME DRYING FROM THE EAST
AND NE TO HELP DECREASE/SCATTER OUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING FROM PEORIA TO FLORA EAST/NE. A BIT
COOLER LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, COOLEST IN EAST
CENTRAL IL WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECREASE FIRST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY WEST AND SW OF CWA
COULD MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL IL FROM GALESBURG TO JACKSONVILLE
WEST ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AGAIN IF THEY HAPPEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
PERSISTENT RADAR ECHOES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS, SAVE FOR A
TENTH OR SO NEAR LONDON MILLS (FULTON COUNTY). THE RAIN HAS BEEN
BATTLING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST, AS WELL AS A
NOTABLE DRY LAYER ALOFT BETWEEN ABOUT 850 AND 700 MB. POINTS
WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER HAVE MANAGED TO MOISTEN THAT DRY
LAYER THE MOST AND STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OF
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NORTH-SOUTH DEFORMATION AXIS,
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY PRIMARILY WEST OF I-55 AND GRADUALLY
MOVING TO ROUGHLY A BLOOMINGTON-EFFINGHAM LINE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE ELONGATED BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST BETWEEN A WESTERN US TROUGH AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER LOW-IMPACT AND RELATIVELY
DRY.
THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS
THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY, POTENTIALLY PICKING UP TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM NOW-HURRICANE POLO AS IT DOES SO. A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY
WITH PERHAPS MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS TRACKING ALONG IT
COULD BE A RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAIN SETTING UP SOMEWHERE IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP
THAT FEATURES A DEEPER CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US, AND A GROUP THAT FEATURES A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE NORTHERN STREAM GROUP HAS A HIGHER AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT EITHER WAY THERE
IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES WEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR FORECAST THIS CYCLE. CEILINGS ABOVE 7K FEET WILL BE COMMON.
SCATTERED -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS OVER WESTERN IL, SO ADDED VCSH FOR KPIA-KSPI. EAST
WINDS AROUND 5 KT WILL CONTINUE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...AAT
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...AAT
AVIATION...25
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