830
FXUS63 KILX 270444
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1144 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL IL INTO THIS EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BECOME THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
- NBM HAS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES FROM
OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
A LINGERING AREA OF 20DBZ RADAR RETURNS IN OUR WESTERN CWA ARE
LIKELY VIRGA AND NOT REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE 8-10K FT
BASES. CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RADAR RETURNS APPROACHING
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES FOR KNOX TO SCHUYLER COUNTIES, BUT NOT ENOUGH
PROBABILITY TO THROW IT INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY OF SUB-CLOUD
DRY AIR TO PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE WEAK FORCING REGIME,
WITH EASTERLY FLOW RESUMING ON SUNDAY IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE.
PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR CWA ON SUNDAY, SO NO
CHANGES WITH THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE EVENING
UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY, WITH IL NESTLED BETWEEN A DEEP COASTAL LOW
(NOR'EASTER) TRACKING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
SEABOARD THROUGH MONDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH/NE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING
OVER WEST CENTRAL IL, PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF A GALESBURG TO
SPRINGFIELD LINE. AREAS FURTHER EAST ARE DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 45-50F FROM PERSISTENT GENTLE EAST TO NE FLOW SO THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWER CHANCES FURTHER WEST. THE LATEST CAM RUNS KEEP
PATCHY FOG NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF KANKAKEE AND LAFAYETTE IN
OVERNIGHT AND OVER NW IOWA. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM LOWER 50S
IN EASTERN IL (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE FROM CHAMPAIGN AND ROBINSON
EAST/NE AND UPPER 50S IN CLOUDIER AREAS FROM GALESBURG TO
SPRINGFIELD WEST/SW.
NICE EARLY FALL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINING WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE TOWARD IL WITH LIGHT
EAST TO NE WINDS. WESTERN AND SW CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAN EASTERN IL WHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY LOWER 50S, BUT RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 IN EASTERN IL AND MID 50S OVER WEST CENTRAL IL/MS
RIVER VALLEY.
THE NOR'EASTER TO WEAKEN AND START PULLING AWAY FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION GIVING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
A BIT WARMER AIR INTO IL. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING TUE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT
SHOULD BE DRY DURING DAYTIME HOURS OVER CWA ON TUE WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING OVER THE IL RIVER
VALLEY TUE EVENING AND OVER REST OF CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT TUE
NIGHT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HOLDS OFF
UNTIL WED IN SOUTHEAST IL.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
LIKELY FROM OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
VERY HIGH PWATS OF 1.5-2.25 INCHES FROM WED THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG
WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR IL WED-FRI TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AT
TIMES. NBM HAS 30-50% CHANCE OVER OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
MUCH OF CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR PARAMETERS TO KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN. LATEST EXTENDED MODELS ARE
TRENDING WETTER DURING NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER DEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR FORECAST AGAIN THIS CYCLE. A FEW -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
KPIA-KSPI ON SUNDAY, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST. LIGHT ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
UPDATE...SHIMON
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...25
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