624
FXUS63 KILX 271026
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
526 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-70S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT RAIN SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL FALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY BEFORE A COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN BY
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A BLOCKING HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL STAY SITUATED
BETWEEN A NOR'EASTER TRACKING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INLAND FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN QUIET, TRANQUIL
WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, BRINGING DAILY HIGHS IN
THE MID-70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL RAPIDLY EVOLVE BY TUESDAY AS A POTENT
TROUGH CARVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MERGES WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
THE MID- TO UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, BREAKING DOWN THE
BLOCKING RIDGE AND STEERING THE NOR'EASTER OUT TO SEA. ROBUST
THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DRIVEN BY THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROPEL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
A KEY ADJUSTMENT IN RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS A DELAY IN THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. MODEL TRENDS INCREASINGLY
INDICATE THAT AS THE PARENT SOUTHWESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH PHASES
WITH POLO, IT WILL PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL STALL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST,
DELAYING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LEAD TO TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WHILE BOTH PATHWAYS OFFER HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
FRONTAL TIMING AND SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL DICTATE THE
LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS:
SCENARIO A (THE SLOWER/WETTER SOLUTION): FEATURES A WEAKER
CLOSED WAVE POSITIONED FURTHER WEST OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS ALLOWS
A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S.,
PREVENTING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM DIGGING SOUTH. THE
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS FURTHER NORTH WITH A SLOWER EASTWARD PUSH,
PLACING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SCENARIO B (THE FASTER/DRIER SOLUTION): DEPICTS A STRONGER
CLOSED WAVE FARTHER EAST OVER TEXAS, WHICH ALLOWS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO ADVANCE SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MORE RAPIDLY, THEREBY LIMITING TOTAL
RAINFALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SLIGHTLY BETTER
CLUSTERING AROUND SOLUTION B. CONSEQUENTLY, CAUTION IS ADVISED
AGAINST QPF SOLUTIONS FORECASTING WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS ACTUAL ACCUMULATION MAY END UP
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
EXPANDING ON THESE OUTCOMES, BOTH SCENARIOS SIGNAL A MOSTLY DRY
SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN
COMPARED TO MID-WEEK WARMTH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CAPPING IN
THE LOWER 70S TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY LATE NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK DUE TO A HIGHLY CHAOTIC SYNOPTIC
SETUP. THREE MAIN FEATURES WILL INTERACT: THE CLOSED UPPER WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S., A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., AND A TROPICAL FEATURE LIFTING NORTH OUT
OF THE GULF. THE INTERPLAY AMONG THESE SYSTEM COMPONENTS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL SWATH OF HEAVY
RAIN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
TODAY, KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH. SITES SUCH AS KSPI AND KPIA
WILL STILL REMAIN VFR, BUT GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND LOWER
CEILINGS MAY EXIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...MJA
DISCUSSION...MJA
AVIATION...MJA
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