456
FXUS63 KILX 300504
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1204 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S STICK AROUND THROUGH
MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 72.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A 50-90% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70.
- DRIER, AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, DROPPING WEEKEND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK FOR MOST,
WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S NEAR/SOUTH OF I-
72 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE STEMMING FROM HURRICANE POLO WILL GET LIFTED
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL US THEN SPILL INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINNING TONIGHT, BRINGING LIKELY CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF A QUINCY TO BLOOMINGTON LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL STORM
CHANCES WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PWATS (UP AROUND 2 INCHES) AND WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN, WITH AREAS NEAR
AND WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) SHOWS A 50-90% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF RAIN NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A 50-70%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON
LINE. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RISES ON AREA RIVERS,
STREAMS, AND CREEKS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MIDWEST STATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND HIGH-BASED INITIALLY WITH
LITTLE IMPACT TO VISIBILITY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...MJA
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