330
FXUS63 KILX 010512
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1212 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY. NARROW BANDS OF RAIN COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED TOTALS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.
- DRIER, FALL-LIKE WEATHER BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST
COAST OF THE US WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A
RIBBON OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO PARTS OF OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS IS COLLOCATED WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ AND HAS RESULTED
IN A LARGE AREA OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION STEADY RAIN SHOWERS OVER
A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL US, INCLUDING NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE FALLEN NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY, WHERE IS
PAINTING APPROXIMATELY 0.5-1.5". A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE WITH A SMALL AREA OF RIDGING. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD WITH FORECAST LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, SPILLING
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
THIS TIME MORE WIDESPREAD. CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PWATS AND DEEP WARM-
CLOUD LAYERS WILL BRING POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
30.12Z HREF 24 HOUR QPF LOCALIZED PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN (LPMM)
ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY SHOWS SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF 2 TO 3"+ OF RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH WE CAN TAKE SOME RAIN, LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IF THE RAIN FALLS OVER
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH OF HERE.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MIDWEST STATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
SHOWERS FALLING FROM A VFR CLOUD DECK WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS TONIGHT. A MORE SOLID AREA OF -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT, TO THE NORTH BY THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST
AT KDEC- KCMI, WHERE 20-25 KT GUSTS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
DAY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...25
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