333
FXUS63 KILX 012322
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
622 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BROAD RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN BANDS COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.
- TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
CONTINUE NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE REGION PROGRESSES EASTWARD, INGESTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM POLO. 12Z SOUNDINGS IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REFLECT OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER,
WHICH LENDS CREDENCE TO LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL OF
2 TO 4 INCHES SHOWN IN A FEW HIGH-RES MODELS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AMOUNTS OF THIS RANGE WOULD REQUIRE NEARLY STATIONARY CORRIDORS
OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS (TRAINING).
NEVERTHELESS, MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
AMOUNTS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT GIVEN LOW VALUES OF CAPE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH RECENTLY
HAVE NOT DETECTED ANY LIGHTNING FROM SHOWERS AROUND THE IL RIVER
AND WESTWARD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE FROM I-55
NORTHWESTWARD, BUT COULD LINGER PAST NOON FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD.
NEVERTHELESS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH A FEW DRY COLD FRONTS COULD MODULATE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH ONLY MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WARM A BIT FOR SUNDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 70S, THEN COOL BACK TO
AROUND 70 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWING A FRONT SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO MID AND UPPER 70S.
AFTER LOWS STILL FAIRLY MILD IN MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH UPPER
50S TO MID 60S EAST OF I-55 AND LOWER TO MID 50S TO THE WEST, LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
INITIAL WIND SHIFT FROM S/SE TO NW IS CURRENTLY ABOUT TO ENTER
KDEC AND WILL REACH EASTERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING, WHILE A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SPEEDS OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BECOME NORTH. WHILE SHOWERS IN EASTERN ILLINOIS HAVE BEEN
MORE SCATTERED THUS FAR, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF RAIN WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING,
LINGERING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT IN EASTERN ILLINOIS. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS OF 600-900 FEET, AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW 2 MILES.
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN AT KPIA AROUND 08-09Z, REACHING
KDEC/KCMI TOWARD 12-13Z OR SO.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...GEELHART
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