436
FXUS63 KILX 020651
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
151 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-70 WILL TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY AS COOLER, DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
* A BENIGN FALL PATTERN BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SHORT TERM... (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS, CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LIGHT POST-FRONTAL RAIN CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WITHIN THE ANAFRONTAL RAIN
BAND. MEANWHILE, A STRONG 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST IS STEADILY BUILDING INTO THE REGION, DRIVING
A NOTABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SOUTHWARDS. DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S YESTERDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY.
EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-70 TO END BY AROUND
MIDDAY AS DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 UNDER GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
WHILE MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS
SETUP WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS, SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL TRACK A WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH ON
SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING ANY
PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATE LINE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BRIEF UPTICK IN
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, BOOSTING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID-
TO-UPPER 70S.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, ANOTHER EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
OVERSPREADS THE MIDWEST BY EARLY MONDAY BEFORE SETTLING ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S WITH LOWS CONSISTENTLY IN THE 40S. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE WILL INITIATE A MORE SUSTAINED WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS JUST EXIT SOUTHEAST OF IL EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH
BACK EDGE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NEAR I-57/KCMI. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE WEST OF I-55, MORE NUMEROUS OVER MO.
LATEST CAMS SHOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NW TO
SE WITH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS.
VFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO KPIA AROUND 09Z, KSPI AND KBMI
11-12Z AND KDEC/KCMI TOWARD 13-14Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN
PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTH TO NNE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH
FEW GUSTS 15-20 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ON FRIDAY. WIND VEER NE AND DIMINISH 4-8 KTS
AFTER SUNSET FRI EVENING AS 1026-1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND RIDGING INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...DEUBELBEISS
DISCUSSION...DEUBELBEISS
AVIATION...07
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