351
FXUS63 KILX 031726
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BENIGN EARLY FALL PATTERN WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SHORT TERM... (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 1027-1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND RIDGING INTO CENTRAL IL EARLY
THIS MORNING, WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY SUNSET WHILE
MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WILL
BRING AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY (CLOUDS CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
CWA TODAY). LIGHT NE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING TO VEER EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING TODAY AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TODAY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S, COOLEST IN EAST CENTRAL IL WITH LOWER 40S.
A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL TRACK A WEAK SURFACE
LOW NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THIS TO BRING A COLD FRONT
SE THROUGH CENTRAL IL DURING SUNDAY MORNING AND PASS THROUGH DRY
AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP QPF NORTH AND NE OF IL
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BRIEF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BRIEF UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY,
BOOSTING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S (LOWER 70S IN
KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES WHERE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOONER).
A LARGE 1025-1027 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
MIDWEST/IL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
TUE WHILE RIDGING WESTWARD INTO IL. THIS TO MAINTAIN SUNNY/FAIR
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR IL MON AND TUE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT NE WINDS AND LOW TO MID 70S TUE WITH SOUTH
TO SE WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S AND 40-45F MONDAY NIGHT, COOLEST IN EAST CENTRAL IL. LOWS
TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUE
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE/TROF TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SE THRU CENTRAL IL ON
WED AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT TO PASS THROUGH DRY AS WELL WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPING QPF EVEN FURTHER NORTH/NE OF IL THAN THIS
WEEKEND SYSTEM. MILDER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F ON
WED AND THESE MILDER HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S LIKELY
CONTINUES THU AND FRIDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE TO BETWEEN
584-586 DECAMETERS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
LIKELY CONTINUING WITH WARM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEXT
WEEKEND. WE MAY BE GETTING INTO ELEVATED FIELD FIRE RISK FROM
WED THRU SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH'S
GET TO 30% OR LESS STARTING WED, THOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS OF SEP 28TH, 21% OF
SOYBEANS AND 26% OF CORN HAS BEEN HARVESTED OVER IL, SO WELL
INTO THE FALL HARVEST SEASON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL DOMIMATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER, WE MAY SEE GUSTS IN SOME
LOCATIONS UP TO 20 KTS FROM THE ESE TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. A
LOW PROBABILITY (10%) OF VIS LESS THAN 5 MI EXISTS LATE TONIGHT
(09Z-15Z) NEAR CMI AND DEC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST
TRENDS AND UPDATE IF NEEDED. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD
LIMIT MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BEING RATHER SHALLOW AND LIMITED
IN AREAL COVERAGE IF ANY DOES FORM.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...07/KNUTSVIG
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