909
FXUS63 KILX 041722
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1222 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT AND DRY FALL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY COOL ON MONDAY BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT BEFORE
A WARMING TREND PUSHES HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
- PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP OR EXPAND AND SPARK HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER AWARENESS
DURING ONGOING FALL HARVEST ACTIVITIES, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FIRE RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PLAINS CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE
REGION TODAY. NO CLOUD FORMATION OR PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. WINDS EASE
AROUND SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWS
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50F.
ON MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARD NORTHERN IL BY AFTERNOON,
ESTABLISHING A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. BRIEF POST-FRONTAL COLD
AIR ADVECTION CAPS MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF-ENS AND GEFS INDICATES LOW
AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MID- ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND INITIATING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WED-SAT, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S FOR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT COMFORTABLE LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AFTERNOON RH WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 30% FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA SOUTH OF I-72 THU-FRI, WHICH COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FIELD FIRES DURING HARVEST. HOWEVER,
WIND GUSTS DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 15 MPH,
WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE RISK OF RAPID SPREAD.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORT A
TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH FROM THE GULF TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. CURRENT BLENDED FORECAST BRINGS A 20-30% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST IL ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT AMONG INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS, SO WE'LL NEED
TO WATCH THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR/SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT NEAR 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING AND VEERING NORTH
TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...DEUBELBEISS
DISCUSSION...25
AVIATION...25
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