610
FXUS63 KILX 060505
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1205 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DUE TO DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, THERE IS AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TODAY...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. AS THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO NUDGE
EASTWARD, A LIGHT E/SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT, CLEAR SKIES
AND A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S.
WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO S/SW, HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS READINGS SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THROUGH THE REGION VIRTUALLY UNNOTICED...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
A FEW CLOUDS AND A SHIFT IN THE WIND. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH OF
THE PEORIA AREA TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF I-70. AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET SHUNTED
BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. PREVIOUS MODELS HAD SHOWN A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY: HOWEVER, THE
12Z OCT 5 SUITE SUGGESTS ANY PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL N/NW OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ONCE THE FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD, A WARM
AND VERY DRY WEEKEND WILL BE ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
GIVEN THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ROUTINELY DROPPING TO 30% OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOONS,
A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES EXISTS THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. AFTER THAT, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT NHC
GIVES A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SYNOPTIC
MODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF
COAST BY THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH VERY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF HOW
FAR N/NW ITS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND FURTHEST WEST WITH ITS
MOISTURE PLUME...REACHING CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
THE ECMWF IS WEAKER AND KEEPS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOSTLY E/SE
IN THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME RANGE, TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
MOISTURE AND ANY POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES. THE 12Z NBM BRINGS 20
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I-70 SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 20 POPS
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS EVENING WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WINDS MAY
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT SHOULD
FAVOR AN E/SE DIRECTION AT 5 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 8-10KT RANGE AS
THE RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS EAST. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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