200
FXUS63 KILX 061938
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
238 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR AFTERNOON AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES TODAY, THURSDAY,
FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER.
- THE NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
(20-30%) CHANCE FOR MORE THAN ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS SOUTH
OF I-70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. THOUGH THE LATTER SYSTEM IS DISPLACED
FAIRLY FAR TO THE NORTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A
LITTLE WITH A NUMBER OF GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH OBSERVED. THIS,
COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE 25-35% RANGE,
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR AGRICULTURAL FIELD
FIRES. THIS RISK WILL BE PARTICULARLY NOTABLE SOUTH OF ABOUT
SPRINGFIELD-MATTOON, WHERE CONDITIONS ARE CLASSIFIED AS
ABNORMALLY DRY DUE TO EXTENDED PRECIPITATION DEFICITS. MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EACH DAY FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, CONTINUING THE ELEVATED FIELD FIRE
RISK.
OUR NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE OF RAIN HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DEVELOPING POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF, AND THE TRACK
IT EVENTUALLY TAKES. THOUGH VARIABILITY IS STILL HIGH WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GULF COAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, THE EFI
PRODUCT SHOWS A SOT CONTOUR ENCOMPASSING SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS,
INDICATING THAT THE TOP 10% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ABOVE THE
99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR QPF/FORECAST PRECIPITATION.
LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, THE CHANCES OF GREATER
THAN 0.50" OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE ILX CWA WITH THIS EVENT ARE ONLY IN
THE 20-30% RANGE. HOWEVER, THOSE HIGH-END MEMBERS ARE THERE,
AND THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT MAY OCCASIONALLY OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLOUDS NEAR 5 KFT AFTER 06Z ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH CEILINGS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE REGION AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS TO
THE WEST.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...AAT
DISCUSSION...AAT
AVIATION...AAT
FIRE WEATHER...07/AAT
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