245
FXUS63 KILX 070844
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
344 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR AFTERNOON AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES TODAY, THURSDAY,
FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE IL RIVER.
- THE NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. LREF HAS A
30-45% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO FLORA LINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE 08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RIDGING SW INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST WI, CENTRAL IA INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER IL WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER CENTRAL IL AND CALM WINDS IN SOUTHEAST IL. TEMPS
WERE IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF CWA WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S IN
SOUTHEAST IL.
THE LATEST CAMS PUSH COLD FRONT SE THROUGH THE IL RIVER VALLEY
LATE THIS MORNING, THRU REST OF CENTRAL IL DURING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THRU SE IL EARLY THIS EVENING. LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONT AND SHOULD PASS THRU DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AGAIN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SWEEPING BY. SW WINDS 5-15
MPH TO SHIFT NW AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WARM HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S, WARMEST FROM I-72 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BUT SHY OF RECORD HIGHS NEAR 90F
TODAY. FAIR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
(WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S).
WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA BY
MIDDAY THU AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AGAIN WITH NW WINDS
5-10 MPH. OVERALL A PRETTY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S CENTRAL IL AND LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEAST IL. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY DAWN FRIDAY, WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO
IOWA AND NW IL OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. MOST OF ITS LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD BE NW OF CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS OUR AIR MASS IT PRETTY DRY, AND WE JUST HAVE SLIGHT
POPS NORTH/NW OF PEORIA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. LOWS
THU NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S, WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN EAST CENTRAL
IL. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVES A SSE WINDS OF 7-14 MPH. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER IL ON FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND
585 DECAMETERS BY DAYS END. SOME CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL IL FRI
MORNING ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE
FRI AFTERNOON WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (MID 80S FROM
SPRINGFIELD SW). ANOTHER WARM DAY IN THE 80S EXPECTED SAT AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(NHC) HAS IT BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUNSET THU WHEN
IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE 1ST HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
THIS YEAR. ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH AND REACH NEAR THE
AL/MS GULF COAST DURING FRI EVENING, WITH ITS REMNANTS MOVING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NNE OVER CENTRAL AND SE IL DURING SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE GEM MODEL KEEPING QPF FURTHER
SOUTH/SE OF CENTRAL IL AND MAINLY CLIPPING SOUTHEAST IL WITH
SOME SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. BLENDED MODELS SHOW HIGHEST POPS
OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SE
IL WHERE POPS PEAK FROM 40-60% FROM I-57 EAST. THE LREF HAS A
30-45% CHANCE OF OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO FLORA LINE WHERE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWER CHANCES TO DIMINISH
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN IL. HIGHS SUNDAY TO BE MUCH
COOLER MID 70S IN SOUTHEAST IL AND POSSIBLY COOLER NEAR THE
WABASH RIVER. HIGHS AROUND 80F FROM I-55 WEST.
SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BACK INTO CENTRAL/SE IL ON MONDAY WITH
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S, WITH MID
80S POSSIBLE FROM SPRINGFIELD SW. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING SE
OVER AREA DURING MONDAY NIGHT. NBM HAS 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN CWA MON EVENING AND ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO
TUE WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN AND MODERATE QPF NORTH AND NE OF
CWA. TEMPS TO COOL FOR MID WEEK, GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
NEXT WED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AROUND
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER
TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO
AROUND 10 KT FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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