372
FXUS63 KILX 071851
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
151 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR AFTERNOON AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES THROUGH SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-72.
- THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. THERE
IS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN
SOUTH OF I-70 AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
TAYLORVILLE TO DANVILLE.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF I-74. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY DESPITE
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TODAY, AND A SHORTWAVE IMPACTING
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. TODAY'S FRONT SHOULD BRING NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCREASED
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH,
SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON (EVENING SOUTH OF I-70),
AND DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR
THURSDAY, AND SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST U.S. FRIDAY, BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THURSDAY, BUT ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-74.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAHS, CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA, ARRIVES
IN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACK SHOWS
THIS FEATURE ARRIVING AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE SW TIP
OF IN AT 7 AM SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH MODELS AND OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
INDICATE CONTINUING TRACK UNCERTAINTY ON THE ORDER OF A STATE
WIDTH. 00Z-LREF ENSEMBLE FORECAST NOW DEPICTS 40 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR MORE THAN HALF INCH RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-70, AND UP
TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR OVER AN INCH, OFFERING HOPE FOR A
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN THIS AREA BUT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR NORTH. TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-70,
CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH ARE LESS 50 PERCENT AND
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT NORTHWEST
OF THE IL RIVER. ENSEMBLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 2
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL.
ISAIAS SHOULD TAKE A RAPID TURN EASTWARD AS IT REACHES THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AGAIN TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, LIKELY WITH MOST
OF ITS IMPACTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGHS
RISE TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY, INCREASING TO MID AND
UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. A DIP IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST SUNDAY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS AFFECT THE
AREA, AND HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID 70S. MID 80S CAN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY, FOLLWED BY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES OF COOLING FOR MIDWEEK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS, WITH
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS
SHIFTING FROM WSW TO NW THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GRADUALLY DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...37
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