491
FXUS63 KILX 081618
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1118 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR AFTERNOON AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE IL RIVER.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
MORNING FROM I-74 NORTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
- THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. LATEST
LREF HAS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO EFFINGHAM LINE. A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OVER HALF INCH RAIN AS FAR NORTHWEST AS TAYLORVILLE TO
URBANA. LREF HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF
RAIN FROM LAWRENCEVILLE SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IL. DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ARE ALLOWING THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DIP JUST BELOW 30% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THAT MAY SUPPORT FIELD FIRE DEVELOPMENT IF SPARKS HIT DRY FUELS
DURING HARVEST ACTIVITIES. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT, SO NO
RAPID SPREAD OF ANY FIRE IS EXPECTED, BUT WE ARE WATCHING
SATELLITE FIRE PRODUCTS CLOSELY FOR ANY SITUATIONS THAT MAY
DEVELOP. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE 08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL ND AND RIDGING SE INTO IOWA AND NEAR THE IL/MO BORDER. A
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH IL YESTERDAY WAS WELL
SOUTH OF IL NEAR THE TN RIVER VALLEY. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS NW OF THE IL RIVER
AND NO FOG OBSERVED YET OVER CWA. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S IN CENTRAL IL WITH MID 50S OVER CLAY, RICHLAND AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES.
A DELIGHTFUL DAY AHEAD WEATHERIZE FOR CENTRAL/SE IL AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER IL BY MIDDAY AND DRIFTS LOWER MI AND
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN FRI. AMPLE SUNSHINE AGAIN TODAY
WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH/CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH DUE TO NEARBY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S NORTHERN CWA AND LOWER 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 APPROACHING 85F. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S, COOLEST IN EASTERN IL WITH SOME UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IN BORDER. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT MAINLY
OVERNIGHT OVER CENTRAL IL WITH FAIR SKIES IN SOUTHEAST IL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER
IOWA WITH WAA FROM SW 850 MB JET OF 25-35 KTS AND SOME INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG TO MOVE INTO AREAS NW OF THE IL RIVER FRIDAY
MORNING SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE ALONG WITH
20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE.
ACTIVITY FROM PEORIA/I-74 NORTH FRIDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY
SHIFTS NE OF CWA EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS 500
MB RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO IL. WARM HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S, WITH UPPER 80S FROM SPRINGFIELD AND EFFINGHAM SW.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO IL FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF CWA DRY THRU SUNSET SAT, THOUGH WE WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SAT AFTERNOON FROM HIGHWAY 50
SOUTH DUE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH. MILDER LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND WARM
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SAT, COOLEST SOUTHEAST OF I-70
WHERE CLOUDS MOVE IN QUICKER ON SATURDAY.
HURRICANE ISAIAS BECOME 1ST HURRICANE OF THIS SEASON IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN WITH 75 MPH AT 1 AM AND NW OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) FORECAST ISAIAS
TO TRACK NE AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY FURTHER TO
100-110 MPH AS IT REACHES NEAR THE FAR WESTERN TIP OF FL NEAR
AL GULF COAST BORDER LATE FRI EVENING, THEN WEAKEN IT IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN TN SAT EVENING. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO
SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, WITH RAIN
LIKELY MOVING OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SE IL DURING SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING, AND DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM LATE SAT
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BRUNT OF RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
FROM I-55 EAST. LATEST LREF HAS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO EFFINGHAM
LINE. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER HALF INCH RAIN AS FAR NORTHWEST
AS TAYLORVILLE TO URBANA. LREF HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH
OR MORE OF RAIN FROM LAWRENCEVILLE SOUTHEAST. MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS AROUND KEEPS COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S IN
EASTERN IL EAST OF I-57 ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER 70S OVER THE IL
RIVER VALLEY WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVES OUT QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO IL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WARM
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S (UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F FROM
SPRINGFIELD SW). A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SE
THROUGH CWA OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT THIS FAR SW AND MAINLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF THEY HAPPEN AT ALL.
HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S CENTRAL IL AND UPPER 70S IN
SOUTHEAST IL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO IL TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW OVER THE ROCKIES DURING
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO EJECT A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM NE INTO THE
MIDWEST AROUND WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING
OUR NEXT SHOWERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK INTO 2ND WEEKEND OF
OCTOBER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ND AND RIDGING SE OVER IOWA AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL IL AT DAWN, TO SETTLE OVER IL BY MIDDAY AND TO
SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. NEARBY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IL
AIRPORTS THROUGH 12Z/7 AM FRI ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. WINDS
GENERALLY NW DIRECTION TODAY AND TRENDING EAST TO SE OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS PREVAIL TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WAA DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF IOWA OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY NW OF
CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS THRU 12Z/7 AM FRI. BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION
COULD AFFECT NORTHERN TERMINALS (PIA/BMI) DURING FRI MORNING
AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
UPDATE...SHIMON
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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