122
FXUS63 KILX 081937
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
237 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING FROM I-74 NORTH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR AFTERNOON AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES
THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE IL RIVER.
- THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST LREF
HAS LOWERED AND SHIFTED SOUTHEAST THE PROBABILITIES FOR A
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MORE
THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FLORA TO
TERRE HAUTE. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER HALF INCH RAIN EXISTS AS
FAR NORTHWEST AS EFFINGHAM TO DANVILLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
NEAR TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A 25-35KT 850MB LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FUEL THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT. IN LIGHT OF THAT AND BETTER CAM MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT SOME MEASURABLE
RAIN WILL OCCUR IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, PRIMARILY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CANTON TO BLOOMINGTON IN THE TIME FRAME FROM 7 AM TO
NOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS A QUARTER INCH IN
LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY TRIGGER ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE WAVE WILL EXIT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING IN OUR
FORECAST AREA AROUND 1 PM CDT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
CONCERT WITH THIS WAA REGIME, HELPING PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH IT'S CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO ILLINOIS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HURRICANE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS A SIMILAR PATH TO THE OVERNIGHT UPDATES, WITH THE
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE MISSING ILLINOIS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SURGE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE CENTER OF THE LOW, WITH
RAIN SHOWERS SURGING AS FAR NORTH AS TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS
SATURDAY EVENING. WE CONTINUED 60-70 POPS SOUTH OF I-70 SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN SHIFTING EAST OF
ILLINOIS BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME
DOWN A BIT, WITH UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY
LAWRENCE COUNTY, AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ONLY UP TO I-70. A
FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE SCATTERED UP TO EASTERN MCLEAN AND SOUTH TO
CHRISTIAN COUNTY. CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL KEEP
HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
EXTENDED PERIOD (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A QUICK SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT, AS HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR RAINFALL WITH 30-50 PCT POPS EXPANDING FROM ACROSS
THE AREA NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP THOSE RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS OUR TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST OBS HAVE COME IN CALM, AND THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THAT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT WE
WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE AROUND THE PEORIA AREA. INCLUDED A
VCSH FOR THAT PROBABILITY. THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF FORECAST RADAR RETURNS, SO CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NO THUNDER WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE,
BUT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND WE CAN'T RULE
OUT THE NEED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN LATER UPDATES.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...SHIMON
DISCUSSION...SHIMON
AVIATION...SHIMON
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