790
FXUS63 KILX 090701
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
201 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IL NORTH OF I-72 THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF PEORIA. TYPICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER A
QUARTER INCH, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE.
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR AFTERNOON AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES
THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE (10 TO 30
PERCENT) FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-70 AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL VERY LIKELY SEE UNDER A QUARTER INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO ILLINOIS THIS MORNING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF PEORIA, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO JUST NORTH OF I-72. A LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION FUELING
THIS SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL STORMS PRODUCING 1 TO 1.5 INCH
HAIL IN IA, ALTHOUGH 00Z ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE IT ARRIVES IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL IL, AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE LESS INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS CENTRAL IL BY AROUND
NOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TYPICALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH, BUT
HEAVIER STORMS COULD DROP ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH.
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS. CURRENT TRACK FORECASTS SHOW THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE
A HARD EASTWARD TURN SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, LEAVING DIM PROSPECTS
OF GETTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN PARTS OF CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST IL.
12Z ENSEMBLE FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
OVER A HALF INCH SOUTH OF I-70, AND ONLY A FEW PERCENT CHANCE
FOR OVER AN INCH. NORTH OF I-70, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AROUND A 30
PERCENT OR HIGHER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN NEAR AND EAST OF
I-57, CHANCES OF ANYTHING OVER A QUARTER INCH ARE GENERALLY ONLY
10 TO 20 PERCENT.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND ISAIAS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT TRAILING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR RAINFALL WITH
30-50 PCT POPS EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL FURTHER
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLEARING SKIES BRINGING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, WHICH COULD
RIVAL RECORDS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL FEATURE A QUICK SURGE OF WARM AIR
AHEAD OF THE MONDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT, AS HIGHS REACH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES, OUT
OF RECORD TERRITORY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE FIRST
CHANCE FOR NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY AND BEYOND BEHIND A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A NW-SE AXIS OF SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO REACH
KPIA AS EARLY AS 08-09Z, BUT MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK INTO ABOUT MID MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THE
FURTHER EAST THEY GET, AND PROBABILITIES OF REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS KSPI/KDEC ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDER WILL BE AT KPIA, AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 MENTION FOR
EARLY MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING DURING THE MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA, AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR
10 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON BY MIDDAY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...GEELHART
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