503
FXUS63 KILX 092336
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
636 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ANY AFTERNOON AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES
TODAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY PASS
TO THE EAST OF IL THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 10-15%
CHANCE OF 1" OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (CRAWFORD, RICHLAND, AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS, 850 MB TEMPS OF 16-17C, AND
APPROACHING UPPER RIDGING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SURGE
BACK INTO THE 80S TODAY. WE MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT WINDS. HURRICANE ISAIAS, WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF
AMERICA JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE AL/FL BORDER, IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH AND MAKE A SLIGHT JOG TO THE LEFT/WEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS KY ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST MODEL SUITE, THERE'S ONLY
A 10-15% CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE OF RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE SURGE. THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER SLIGHTLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY, WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT, STAYING
AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS WILL
HELP LIMIT FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW (REMNANTS OF ISAIAS) MOVES EAST ON
SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE MIDWEST IN IT'S
WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY. TO THE NORTH, AN UPPER WAVE
WILL RIDE THE RIDGE THROUGH MN/WI MONDAY NIGHT, SUPPRESSING THE
RIDGE A BIT AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH IL ON
TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER WAVE EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A CENTRAL
ROCKIES UPPER LOW. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
CANADIAN LOW, DEEPENING INTO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
LOOKS ACTIVE (SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN) FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF
COLD AIR. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TEMPS AT 850 MB
NEXT SATURDAY AROUND -6 TO -2C. THE BEST YOU CAN GET FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THAT IS MAYBE 50 DEGREES. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
OF MODELS HAS A 30% CHANCE OF 850 MB TEMPS LESS THAN 0C ON
SATURDAY. WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT, THEN BROKEN CIRRUS FROM THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
10KTS OF LESS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...KNUTSVIG
DISCUSSION...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...AUTEN
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