268
FXUS63 KILX 101733
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS MOSTLY
SOUTHEAST OF IL THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 30 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN UNDER A QUARTER INCH FROM NEAR
I-70 SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT.
- NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- A COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE STREAMING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE NEAREST
RAIN BAND IS STILL WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN KENTUCKY, WITH A
SLOW ADVANCE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO OUR DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS ARE INDICATING SOME RADAR
RETURNS INTO OUR SE COUNTIES AS EARLY AS 5 PM CDT, BUT THAT
WOULD LIKELY JUST BE VIRGA TO START. THE CONSENSUS IN THE
GUIDANCE IS FOR THE FORCING FOR PRECIP TO DIMINISH STEADILY THIS
EVENING AS THE MOISTURE BEARING LAYER ARRIVES. WE WILL CONTINUE
SOME LIMITED POPS IN OUR SE, BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WE MAY
NEED TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS EVEN
FURTHER. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS IN THE SE HALF OF
CENTRAL IL WITH 70S IN THAT AREA, WHILE NW COUNTIES REACH THE
LOWER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS ARE NOW FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
CENTRAL TN AND EASTERN KY, WITH PROSPECTS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST IL VERY LOW. SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLES
NOW ENCOMPASSING THE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL IL DEPICT A MAXIMUM OF
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH
NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE, AND 0 PERCENT NORTH OF I-70. TIMING LOOKS TO
BE FROM EARLY EVENING TO AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
BEHIND ISAIAS, A RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE
SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH IL
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP CENTRAL ROCKIES
UPPER LOW PRODUCES A STRONG RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH THE STALLED COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY THE ROCKIES LOW AND A
CANADIAN LOW MERGING AND PROGRESSING TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, WITH
VARIOUS MODELS DEPICTING MUCH DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BY NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT EVENTUALLY SUGGESTING A DRY PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED DOWN A FEW DEGREES TODAY AND SUNDAY,
OUT OF NEAR RECORD TERRITORY, WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S HIGHS
EXPECTED. STRONG WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD YIELD NEAR
RECORD WARMTH ON MONDAY, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS. THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
MIDWEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY, AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL BLENDS TREND TOWARD FURTHER
COOLING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, BUT 5TH TO
95TH PERCENTILE 12Z ENSEMBLE RANGE IS FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
70S FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. ANY MID-HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL REMAIN VFR. CMI COULD
SEE SOME LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS TO 10K WITH SOME SCT060.
WINDS LOOK TO BE S-SE AT 6 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY SHIFT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
UPDATE...SHIMON
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...SHIMON
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