886
FXUS63 KILX 110740
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
240 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD WARMTH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TODAY AND UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S MONDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS EQUALLY WARM SOUTH OF I-72.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES IS ON TRACK TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST-CENTRAL IL TUESDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS POINT.
- COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
BE BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL
IL. STRONG WARM ADVECTION BUILDING THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS SURGING INTO THE MID 80S TODAY, JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM
RECORD VALUES, AND INTO THE LOWER 90S MONDAY, EXCEEDING PREVIOUS
RECORD HIGHS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY, BRINGING SOME MINOR COOLING TO AREAS NORTH OF I-72 AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE STRENGTHENS, A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS, AND INCREASED GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES. 60 TO 80 PERCENT POPS
ARE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT 00Z
GFS ADVERTISES AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL, WHILE 12Z
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH. SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE AND 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR APPEAR LIKELY TUESDAY
EVENING IN A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL
IL AS 12Z ENSEMBLE DEPICTS 60+ PERCENT CHANCES FOR JOINT PROBABILITY
OF SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KTS AND MUCAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG, WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS DESIGNATED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA.
LATER IN THE WEEK, A CENTRAL ROCKIES LOW LOOKS TO EJECT EASTWARD AND
MERGE WITH A CANADIAN LOW TO BRING ANOTHER 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THURSDAY'S SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER THE TRAJECTORY OF THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH
MODELS VARYING CONSIDERABLY. FOR CENTRAL IL, 12Z ENSEMBLES HAVE
AROUND A 40 DEGREE SPREAD FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS ROUGHLY A MEDIAN VALUE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT A POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
AREA OF CEILINGS JUST BELOW 3,000 FEET IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF KCMI. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE DATA HAS SHOWN SOME
EROSION ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE, AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NOT MUCH OF AN ADDITIONAL PUSH NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY
FEEL THAT THIS WILL NOT REACH KCMI, THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE
CALL, AND ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANSIENT THROUGH ABOUT
09Z.
IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH MAINLY HIGH-BASED CLOUDS DURING THE
BEGINNING AND ENDING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...GEELHART
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