494
FXUS63 KILX 121055
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
555 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HEAT ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
- AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
LOWER ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.
- COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND POTENTIAL FOR FROST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
RECORD WARMTH THROUGH TUESDAY...
RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO BUILD RIDGING OVER THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 90 APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD SET RECORDS
FOR MOST SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL.
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT CLOSE TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS IT
STALLS OUT. PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ABSENT ON THIS PORTION
OF THE FRONT IN THE ABSENCE OF LIFT AND A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
EVENING, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT,
INCREASING MOISTURE, AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING TO THE WEST
WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT, LIKELY
SPREADING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. OVER 1000 J/KG MLCAPE
AND 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE WEST LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM, WITH INSTABILITY SLOWLY WANING AS IT MOVES EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
AND SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS EXTENDING EAST INTO CENTRAL IL TO AROUND I-55. PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME TO AN END
AS A STRONG CANADIAN SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN INCH TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. WITH
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS, OVERALL THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
BENEFICIAL, BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...
COLD AIR TRAILING THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY, AND
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH A STRONG REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO INITIATE ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE AREA,
CLOUD COVER, AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
MODEL BLEND BRINGS HIGHS DOWN TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE 30S BRINGING
POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVER THE PAST DAY MODEL
ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SPREAD
FROM 10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES IS AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY VARY 5
TO 8 DEGREES FROM MODEL BLEND FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP AFTER 02Z-06Z AS SW WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL
AROUND 40 KTS SPREAD OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS BY 18Z. GUSTS
DECREASING AFTER 00Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY:
LOCATION MONDAY TUESDAY
======== ======= =======
BLOOMINGTON 88/1930 91/1899
CHAMPAIGN 87/1962 86/1989
CHARLESTON 89/1962 87/2017
DECATUR 92/1962 90/1899
JACKSONVILLE 88/1901 91/1899
OLNEY 89/1928 93/1928
PEORIA 87/2024 88/1899
SPRINGFIELD 89/1962 88/1975
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...37
CLIMATE...GEELHART
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