790
FXUS63 KILX 131052
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY SOUTH OF PEORIA,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING PERIODS
OF WET WEATHER, WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL LIKELY FOR
MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH SOME INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED 2 INCH DOWNPOURS.
- A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WILL REMAIN UNDER A VERY WARM AIR
MASS CAUSING HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN TODAY,
LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO THE VICINITY OF PEORIA, LIMITING TEMPERATURES
TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER FROM PEORIA NORTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE ABSENCE OF
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT, ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS JUST TO THE WEST
ALONG THE FRONT COULD BRING A CLOSE CALL FOR SOME MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY NORTH OF PEORIA.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FRONT FROM KS
THROUGH MO IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS ALONG THE
FRONT COINCIDENT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE, MLCAPE UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG, AND AROUND 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE AND GROW EASTWARD, WITH HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICTING STORMS
IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WITHING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
MODELS DECREASE CAPE, ESPECIALLY SURFACE/ML CAPE AS THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL, HOWEVER 1000-15000 MUCAPE MAINTAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL, AND SPC DEPICTS A MARGINAL RISK IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL AS
FAR EAST AS I-57 FOR A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH, AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR 1"+ HAIL EASTWARD TO AROUND THE IL
RIVER.
AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEPICTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH WITH MANY BREAKS IN ACTIVITY AS WELL. A STRONG SURFACE LOW
WILL FINALLY TRACK THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN, LIKELY THE HEAVIEST OF THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY THAT COULD RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. SPC
DEPICTS A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE IL
RIVER. MODEL BLEND BRINGS AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AROUND 0.75
INCHES TO THE SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS, SOME ISOLATED 2+ INCH
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS SHOWN BY
SEVERAL HIGH-RES MODELS, AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, DESPITE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. WPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
RAIN AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DOWN CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE IN LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH OF
I-72 TO UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTH.
BEHIND THURSDAY'S LOW A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA, BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRY AIR BY FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE CONVERGED ON A MUCH NARROWER RANGE OF TEMPERATURES THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS, WITH 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE RANGE ONLY AROUND 10
DEGREES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AROUND
60 (PLUS OR MINUS 5 DEGREES), AND LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT (PLUS OR MINUS 5 DEGREES). WITH THE
HIGH PERHAPS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING, THIS WOULD BE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY, A STRONG RETURN OF
WARM AIR WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEARLY 70 DEGREES SUNDAY,
LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN END TO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR BY 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MORNING
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT KPIA AND KBMI, CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY UNTIL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
CONTINUES, HOWEVER MENTIONABLE CHANCES BEGIN AROUND 02Z AT KPIA
TO AROUND 06Z AT KDEC AND KCMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, OTHERWISE PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SW 8-12
KTS THIS MORNING, WEAKENING BY THIS EVENING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
LOCATION TUESDAY LATEST 90 DEG. HIGH
======== ======= ===================
BLOOMINGTON 91/1899 OCTOBER 15, 1899
CHAMPAIGN 86/1989 OCTOBER 14, 1899
CHARLESTON 87/2017 OCTOBER 15, 1897
DECATUR 90/1899 OCTOBER 15, 1938
JACKSONVILLE 91/1899 OCTOBER 30, 1950
OLNEY 93/1928 OCTOBER 22, 1953
PEORIA 88/1899 OCTOBER 15, 1897
SPRINGFIELD 88/1975 OCTOBER 12, 2026
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...37
CLIMATE...GEELHART
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