459
FXUS63 KILX 140529
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1229 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEST
OF I-57 TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 9PM AND 3AM.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST RECENT SPC OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN FROST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MO AND IS
MAKING IT'S WAY INTO WEST CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS
MOVE INTO IL, THEY ARE ALSO DISSIPATING SOME AND HIRES MODELS
THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
ACTUALLY IN CENTRAL MO AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST...AND WONT
REACH INTO IL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST WITH
POPS/WX CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE AREA BUT MADE SOME
TWEEKS TO POP/WX AND THUNDER GRIDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE SOME OF THE
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOMORROW.
CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND AREAS WEST
OF I-55 IN NEXT FEW HOURS AND OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG OR SEVERE. UPDATED FORECAST SHOULD BE COMING SOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 18Z/1PM ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO JUST NORTH OF KANSAS CITY. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO MUCH OF
MISSOURI. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH, READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
60S ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN WESTERN IOWA, THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC IS PRESENTLY MOSTLY BLANK. THIS WILL CHANGE AFTER
DARK AS A 30-40KT 850MB JET STREAK ORIENTED FROM TEXAS TO KANSAS
TRIGGERS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD E/NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. THE CAMS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH CONVECTIVE ARRIVAL EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, SO THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS WILL BE FROM ABOUT 9PM THROUGH 3AM. AFTER THAT,
INSTABILITY WILL WANE AND THE SCATTERED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TOWARD SUNRISE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY,
FOCUSING THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70 DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT, RAIN
CHANCES WILL STEADILY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF I-70. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM AROUND 70
DEGREES FROM THE PEORIA AREA NORTHWARD TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF
I-70.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING, A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE TAIL END OF THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL
BRING AN INCREASED WAVE OF CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE PARAMETERS DO NOT SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER
AT THAT TIME, IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD OF THE
UPCOMING FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. AFTER THAT, WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR AND INSTABILITY TRENDS, AS MODELS
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION AND SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MUCH LESS NUMEROUS. IF PARTIAL CLEARING AND
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KT MAY
PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CAMS THAT EXTEND TO THAT PARTICULAR TIME
FRAME SUCH AS THE 3KM NAM AND RRFS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST
WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THINK THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR AND THE APPROACHING FRONT. SPC
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-72 WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE. STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING NICELY BACK INTO THE 70S BY NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN
12Z OCT 13 MODELS SHOW SURFACE RIDGING OVERHEAD...LEADING TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. THE
00Z OCT 13 LREF SHOWS A 5-15% CHANCE OF LOWS DIPPING BELOW 32F
ALONG/NORTH OF I-72. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES:HOWEVER, THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF LOWS BELOW 32F
EAST OF I-57.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD, EXPECTED TO REACH KBMI
AROUND 06Z, THOUGH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
THE STORMS PUSH EAST. WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS GOING THROUGH KBMI AND PERHAPS KDEC. KSPI
CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS WITH THE OUTFLOW, BUT THIS WILL BE
OUT BEFORE THE TAF VALID TIME.
GETTING LATER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER 12Z, PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS BETWEEN 15-18Z.
CEILINGS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 2,000 FEET SHOULD THEN PREVAIL INTO
THE EVENING, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED TOWARD 02-03Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
UPDATE...AUTEN
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...GEELHART
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