157
FXUS63 KILX 140758
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
258 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TOWARD AREAS
SOUTH OF I-72 TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MIGRATES SOUTHWARD, ALSO
BRINGING CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST RECENT SPC OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS LOCATIONS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN AREAS OF FROST
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE I-55 AND I-57 CORRIDORS IN
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD
TODAY, LIKELY PASSING I-70 BY NOON, BUT LIKELY STALLING OUT BEFORE I-
64 LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL ZONE, FOR POPS DECREASING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER INTENSE PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY TO
SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, THEN A GENERAL LULL IN
ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. WITH 30-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE FORECAST,
STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST IL, WHERE
AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN GENERAL, ALTHOUGH HIGH
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 2 INCH RAINFALL
IN THUNDERSTORMS. WPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM AROUND I-70 SOUTHWARD.
ON THURSDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
COINCIDENT WITH 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO, AND SPC HAS AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-72 DELINEATED FOR A MARGINAL RISK. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY A HALF TO ONE INCH, BUT WITH PERHAPS A NARROW CORRIDOR
OR TWO OF 2 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WPC CONTINUES A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
ONCE THE LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR TO
THE REGION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO TAPER
OFF, BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS
SHORTWAVE, SEVERAL DRY DAYS ARE ON TRACK SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM YESTERDAY'S RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH AROUND 67 IN GALESBURG TO AROUND 80 IN
LAWRENCEVILLE AS THE FRONT MIGRATES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND CLOUDY
AND/OR RAINY CONDITIONS SUPPRESS TEMPERATURE RISES. SIMILAR HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, BEFORE PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR
FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CENTER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT, SUGGESTING THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND RESULTING COLD POCKETS/AREAS OF FROST, THEN THE HIGH
MIGRATES JUST TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, SUGGESTING EASTERN
AREAS WILL BE MORE VULNERABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND STRONGLY STARTING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS. HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH 70 SUNDAY, AND
TREND UPWARD A FEW DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD, EXPECTED TO REACH KBMI
AROUND 06Z, THOUGH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS
THE STORMS PUSH EAST. WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS GOING THROUGH KBMI AND PERHAPS KDEC. KSPI
CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS WITH THE OUTFLOW, BUT THIS WILL BE
OUT BEFORE THE TAF VALID TIME.
GETTING LATER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER 12Z, PUSHING
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS BETWEEN 15-18Z.
CEILINGS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 2,000 FEET SHOULD THEN PREVAIL INTO
THE EVENING, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED TOWARD 02-03Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...GEELHART
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