901
FXUS63 KILX 141728
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1228 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TOWARD AREAS
SOUTH OF I-72 TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MIGRATES SOUTHWARD, ALSO
BRINGING CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MOST RECENT SPC OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS LOCATIONS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN AREAS OF FROST
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE I-55 AND I-57 CORRIDORS IN
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD
TODAY, LIKELY PASSING I-70 BY NOON, BUT LIKELY STALLING OUT BEFORE I-
64 LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL ZONE, FOR POPS DECREASING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER INTENSE PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY TO
SOUTHEAST IL DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, THEN A GENERAL LULL IN
ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. WITH 30-40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE FORECAST,
STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. SPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST IL, WHERE
AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN GENERAL, ALTHOUGH HIGH
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 2 INCH RAINFALL
IN THUNDERSTORMS. WPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM AROUND I-70 SOUTHWARD.
ON THURSDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
COINCIDENT WITH 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO, AND SPC HAS AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-72 DELINEATED FOR A MARGINAL RISK. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY A HALF TO ONE INCH, BUT WITH PERHAPS A NARROW CORRIDOR
OR TWO OF 2 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WPC CONTINUES A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
ONCE THE LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR TO
THE REGION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO TAPER
OFF, BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS
SHORTWAVE, SEVERAL DRY DAYS ARE ON TRACK SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM YESTERDAY'S RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH AROUND 67 IN GALESBURG TO AROUND 80 IN
LAWRENCEVILLE AS THE FRONT MIGRATES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND CLOUDY
AND/OR RAINY CONDITIONS SUPPRESS TEMPERATURE RISES. SIMILAR HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, BEFORE PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR
FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 55 AND 60 BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CENTER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT, SUGGESTING THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND RESULTING COLD POCKETS/AREAS OF FROST, THEN THE HIGH
MIGRATES JUST TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, SUGGESTING EASTERN
AREAS WILL BE MORE VULNERABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND STRONGLY STARTING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS. HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH 70 SUNDAY, AND
TREND UPWARD A FEW DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS IS IMPACTING BMI/PIA/SPI TO START THE 18Z
PERIOD OUT. DEC/CMI ARE STAYING VFR FOR NOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT EVERYONE BECOMES VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BY 09Z, CEILINGS BEGIN TO DROP TO
MVFR AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES NORTH INTO THE
AREA. AS THE RAIN ENTERS EACH SITES, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
CEILINGS DROP INTO IFR, INDICATED BY THE PROB30 GROUP.
THE RAIN WILL ENTER SPI BY 13Z, AFFECTING ALL SITES BY 15Z,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS BEYOND THE 18Z PERIOD TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE SWINGING
BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...COPPLE
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