314
FXUS63 KILX 150527
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT EFFICIENT PUSH OF RAIN WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. THE LPMM IS SHOWING SOME LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN FROM 3AM THURSDAY TO 3AM FRIDAY ON TOP OF WHAT
HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG COLD
FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING A 5%
DAMAGING WIND RISK AND 2% TORNADO RISK, FROM ABOUT A
PITTSFIELD TO GIBSON CITY LINE AND SOUTH.
- WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 30-40 MPH. THE LREF SHOWS
A 40-70% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH WEST OF
I-57 FRIDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS RELAXING AFTER 1PM THAT
AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN AREAS OF FROST
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL. MANY PEOPLE WON'T SEE
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES UNTIL AFTER THE
SYSTEM EXITS TOMORROW NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING IN
THE WEST, BUT THE NEXT EFFICIENT PUSH OF RAIN WILL COME LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THE MORNING ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN COULD HAVE SOME HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES AND BE A PROFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER. PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 1.8-2.1 INCHES, WHICH IS HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER. THE AVERAGE PWAT FOR OCTOBER 15TH IS AROUND 0.6-0.7 INCHES
BASED OFF THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT OUR
SOILS CAN HANDLE THIS RAIN DECENTLY SINCE WE HAVE BEEN SO DRY
LATELY. THE RAIN IS WELCOMED. THE LPMM IS SHOWING SOME LOCALIZED
SWATHS OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 08Z THURSDAY TO 08Z FRIDAY ON
TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING.
A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BRIEFLY EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT RACES EASTWARD.
WHEN THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK AND ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANYING
IT. CURRENTLY, SPC HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, INCLUDING A 5% DAMAGING WIND RISK AND 2% TORNADO RISK,
FROM ABOUT A PITTSFIELD TO GIBSON CITY LINE AND SOUTH. THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
STORM TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BEGIN AS DISCRETE, SUPERCELLS THAT
WILL EVOLVE INTO A MULTICELL/QLCS MODE AS IT EXITS TO THE EAST.
HOW MUCH OF THIS PRIMED ENVIRONMENT WE WILL ACHIEVE WILL BE
DETERMINED BY IF WE CAN RECOVER FULLY FROM THE MORNING
CONVECTION/RAINFALL. TIMING OF THESE STORMS SEEMS TO BE
~20Z-02Z. AFTER THESE STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (NOT SEVERE) COULD OCCUR THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
COOLER, MORE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE USHERED IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND MOST OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. HOW WIDESPREAD THE
FROST CAN GET ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND IF THE WIND DOESN'T
GET TOO GUSTY. BEYOND SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM BACK UP TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY, THEN TO UPPER
70S BY WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TIGHTEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND
30-40 MPH, WITH THE GREATEST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEST OF I-57. THE
LREF SHOWS A 40-70% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH WEST OF
I-57 FRIDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS RELAXING AFTER 1PM THAT
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
CEILINGS ARE HOVERING IN THE 3,000 FOOT VICINITY ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, BUT SHOULD SOLIDLY BE BELOW 2,000 FEET BY 12Z. AS
FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES, CEILINGS SHOULD DETERIORATE FURTHER
AS RAIN MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IS MOST LIKELY AT KPIA (40-70% CHANCE) BY LATE
MORNING. SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM KSPI-KCMI TOWARD 00Z, BUT ANY
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE LOW CLOUDS FOLLOW THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING.
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
TOWARD 18Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. LATE IN THE PERIOD,
EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH SOME
GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS FROM KBMI-KSPI WEST.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...GEELHART
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