691
FXUS63 KILX 152342
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
642 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF I-57.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN AREAS OF FROST BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW 32 DEGREES NORTH OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE WARM FRONT PUSHED BACK NORTH THIS MORNING BRINGING A ROUND OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL IL. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.8-2.1
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS VERY HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.
THE 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED 1.77 INCHES FOR PWAT. THE AVERAGE
PWAT FOR OCTOBER 15TH IS AROUND 0.6-0.7 INCHES BASED OFF THE SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT OUR SOILS CAN HANDLE
THIS RAIN SINCE WE HAVE BEEN SO DRY LATELY. THE RAIN IS WELCOMED.
THE LPMM IS SHOWING SOME LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN THIS MORNING. THE REST OF CENTRAL IL COULD SEE 0.25-0.75" OF
RAIN DURING THIS TIME. SOME AREAS UNDER THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
ALREADY ACHIEVED THE 1-3" AMOUNTS.
WHEN THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AND ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANYING IT. WITH THE
1630Z UPDATE, SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) TO I-
70 AND SOUTH AND A MARGINAL RISK STILL FROM ABOUT A PITTSFIELD TO
GIBSON CITY LINE AND SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF WE CAN RECOVER FULLY FROM THE
MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND MORNING RAINFALL. STORM TYPE LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY BEGIN AS DISCRETE, SUPERCELLS THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO A
MULTICELL/QLCS MODE AS IT EXITS TO THE EAST. DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
~20Z-02Z. AFTER THESE STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST, ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL START LATE THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 30-40 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS POSSIBLE
WEST OF I-57. THE HREF SHOWS A 40-60% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN
35 MPH WEST OF I-57 IN THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD RELAX TO CLOSER TO
15-20 MPH BY SUNSET TOMORROW.
COOLER, MORE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW DAYS. HIGHS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
50S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN IL SATURDAY MORNING, DEPENDING IF
THE WIND WILL DROP TO NEAR CALM. SATURDAY MORNING MAY ALSO HAVE A
RISK FOR A LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE IL RIVER
VALLEY, ESPECIALLY IN LOW SPOTS. THE HREF IS SHOWING A 40-60% CHANCE
OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 32 DEGREES NORTH OF THE IL RIVER
VALLEY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. BEYOND
SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP TO LOW
70S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY, THEN TO UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM WSW TO WNW, WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
BECOMING COMMON LATER THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. A MIX OF CEILINGS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM IFR AT KPIA-KBMI
TO VFR FARTHER SOUTH. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MVFR CEILINGS
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. A BREAK FOR VFR
CEILINGS APPEARS LIKELY AT MOST SITES FROM AROUND 09-14Z, BEFORE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN. ISOLATED INSTABILITY -SHRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER WITH LOW COVERAGE KEPT
MENTION TO VCSH.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...25
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