104
FXUS63 KILX 161110
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
610 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS BEING WEST OF I-57.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN AREAS OF FROST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW 32 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND A 30-50% CHANCE EAST OF I-55 SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BUT THE 500MB TROUGH
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING INSTABILITY
SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT SOME COULD LINGER IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO
ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER DURING THE EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT, TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
IN SOME SPOTS AND GUSTS SHOWS 80-90% CHANCE THAT GUSTS OVER 30
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT, THE HREF SHOWS A 40-60%
CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH EAST OF I-55 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE IN THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING BUT NOT TAPER OFF IN THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
COOLER, FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE 50S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BOTH SAT
AND SUN MORNING. WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS
BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER OVERNIGHT, FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT.
THE HREF IS SHOWING A 40-60% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW 32 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER LATE TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING, SO SOME LOW SPOTS COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE. FROST IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF I-55
WHERE THE HREF IS SHOWING A 30-50% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW 32 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT, A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF A
BLOOMINGTON TO DECATUR TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. ANOTHER FROST
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF I-55 SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM STARTING SUNDAY, REACHING INTO
THE 60S. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START ALL SITES, BUT MVFR CLOUDS AROUND
2.5KFT WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING, AS THE 500MB TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE AREA. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS. SO, WILL HAVE CIGS AT ALL SITES BELOW 2KFT AND VCSH. WILL
ALSO HAVE A PROB30 FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLY HITTING SITES WITH 5SM
AND CIGS BELOW 1KFT. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT END
AT OR PRIOR TO 00Z. DURING EVENING CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT
ALL SITES AND VCSH WILL END. LATE TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED
AT 15-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30KTS POSSIBLE. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING, BUT REMAIN BREEZY, AROUND 15-20KTS, BUT THEN GET
LIGHTER MORE LATE TONIGHT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036-037-040>042-047>052.
KEY MESSAGES...AUTEN
DISCUSSION...AUTEN
AVIATION...AUTEN
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