867
FXUS63 KILX 161743
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS BEING WEST OF I-57.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN AREAS OF FROST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW 32 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND A 30-50% CHANCE EAST OF I-55 SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BUT THE 500MB TROUGH
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING INSTABILITY
SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT SOME COULD LINGER IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO
ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER DURING THE EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT, TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
IN SOME SPOTS AND GUSTS SHOWS 80-90% CHANCE THAT GUSTS OVER 30
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT, THE HREF SHOWS A 40-60%
CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 35 MPH EAST OF I-55 DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE IN THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING BUT NOT TAPER OFF IN THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
COOLER, FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE 50S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BOTH SAT
AND SUN MORNING. WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS
BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER OVERNIGHT, FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT.
THE HREF IS SHOWING A 40-60% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW 32 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER LATE TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING, SO SOME LOW SPOTS COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE. FROST IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF I-55
WHERE THE HREF IS SHOWING A 30-50% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW 32 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT, A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF A
BLOOMINGTON TO DECATUR TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. ANOTHER FROST
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF I-55 SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM STARTING SUNDAY, REACHING INTO
THE 60S. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR/RAP DATA SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL
SINK SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BY 22Z-23Z, FOLLOWED BY CEILINGS
RISING TO VFR BY SUNSET. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER, RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
THEN WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW 10KT ALONG/WEST OF
I-55 OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KT FURTHER EAST AT
KDEC/KCMI.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036-037-040>042-047>052.
KEY MESSAGES...AUTEN
DISCUSSION...AUTEN
AVIATION...BARNES
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