484
FXUS63 KILX 161857
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
157 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF A
LACON...TO LINCOLN...TO TAYLORVILLE LINE.
- FROST WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM. SENSITIVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS NEED TO BE PROTECTED THIS WEEKEND IN ORDER TO
AVOID DAMAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
18Z/1PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A SPRAWLING 1046 HIGH IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH HAS RESULTED IN STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. THE LATEST REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GUSTS OF 25-30MPH AND THESE
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. AMPLE CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE REGION
AS A TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN. ONCE
THE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
ON ITS BACK SIDE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR
BY MID TO LATE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE KILX CWA OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF A DANVILLE TO CASEY LINE WHERE A PERSISTENT LAKE-EFFECT
BAND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH DAWN SATURDAY. WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO LOOSEN, WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW 10MPH AND MAY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE ACROSS
THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND OVERNIGHT WINDS DIMINISHING,
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG/WEST OF A LACON...TO LINCOLN...TO TAYLORVILLE LINE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH CHILLY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WHILE WINDS WILL BE CALM SATURDAY EVENING,
A LIGHT S/SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS, IT
APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A BETTER SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
FROST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. A FROST
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
AFTER THAT, THE REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST LOOKS QUIET AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE AN OCCASIONAL WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY TEMPORARILY IMPEDE THE PROCESS AND BRING A
FEW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A LIGHT SHOWER, THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS DECIDEDLY WARMER AND DRIER. HIGHS WILL START OUT NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY...THEN
WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR/RAP DATA SUGGEST THE SHOWERS WILL
SINK SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BY 22Z-23Z, FOLLOWED BY CEILINGS
RISING TO VFR BY SUNSET. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER, RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST 20-25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
THEN WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW 10KT ALONG/WEST OF
I-55 OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KT FURTHER EAST AT
KDEC/KCMI.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036-037-040>042-047>052.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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