593
FXUS63 KILX 190838
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
338 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY
THIS MORNING, COOLEST NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE FROST IS
MORE LIKELY. CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION WITH THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THREAT OF FROST
OVER EASTERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THIS WEEK. HIGHS TODAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 70S, WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS FROM SPRINGFIELD SOUTHWEST
HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF NEARING 80 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE 08Z/3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPANSIVE 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY (NORTHEAST WV) AND
RIDGING SW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
IL EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT SSE TO CALM WINDS. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS RANGED FROM 35-45F WITH MID 30S FROM PARIS TO
ROBINSON, WHILE NWS ON EAST SIDE OF LINCOLN WAS DOWN TO 34F. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER NW WI INTO SOUTHERN MN, CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CO/KS
BORDER.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY DAYS END, WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS WELL NORTH/NW OF
IL, WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO IL KEEPING US DRY AND THE
FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE EAST OF I-55
UNTIL AROUND 8 AM, THEN A DELIGHTFUL FALL DAY AHEAD WITH SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL IL DURING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH STILL AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AROUND 70F TO LOWER 70S AND DRY
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FAIR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW DEWPOINTS. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
UPPER 30S NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER
QUEBEC BY SUNSET TUE WHILE RIDGING SW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO IL WILL PROVIDE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TUE WITH LIGHT
EAST/SE WINDS AND A BIT MILDER HIGHS 70-75F. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND NEW ENGLAND WED IS RIDGING BACK INTO IL YET AND PROVIDES
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN THU WITH NEARBY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE US THIS WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOWS/STORM SYSTEMS OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE CA COAST
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN NATIONS MID SECTION INCLUDING IL.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER IL LATE THIS WEEK WITH A BIT
WARMER TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 70S THU THRU SUNDAY. AREAS FROM
SPRINGFIELD SW HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF REACHING NEAR 80F THIS
WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THIS WEEKEND BUT CONSENSUS OF MODELS KEEPS QPF NORTH AND WEST OF
IL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 24-28 HAS
65-75% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER IL, WHILE 40-50%
CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL IL AND 50-55%
CHANCE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST IL. SO THIS
WEATHER PATTERN NEXT TWO WEEKS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FALL HARVEST
OF CORN AND SOYBEANS IN IL WHICH IS RUNNING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.
CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 26-NOV 1 CONTINUES 65-75% CHANCE OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER IL WHILE PRECIPITATION TRENDING
NEAR NORMAL IN EASTERN IL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (~35%) OVER
WESTERN HALF OF IL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...AUTEN
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