222
FXUS63 KILX 210759
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND TRANQUIL WEATHER TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE NICE FALL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL, FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR HARVESTING AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
THE 08Z/3 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE AND RIDGING SW INTO IL/IN. ALOFT THERE
IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH CUTOFF
LOW/TROFS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST AND OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF WAS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN CENTRAL KS AND PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AS FAR EAST AS FAR WESTERN MO
AND FAR SW IOWA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE
SPREADING INTO SW IOWA AND CENTRAL/WESTERN MO WHILE NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL OVER IL. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVER FAR
EASTERN IL NEAR WABASH AND KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS AND OVER
SHAWNEE NATIONAL FOREST IN SOUTHERN IL. PATCHY FOG OVER FAR
EASTERN/SE CWA TO LIFT QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. TEMPS WERE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S OVER CWA, BUT AS COOL AS 39F AT NWS LINCOLN
AND ROBINSON, WITH BMI THE MILDER SPOT AT 49F.
THE SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER THE MO VALLEY TODAY, SPREADING SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EASTWARD INTO MAINLY WESTERN/SW CWA TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE OVERALL TODAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN IL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER IL KEEPING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHICH IS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. FAIR SKIES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. 1030 MB OR STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN QUEBEC AND RIDGING INTO IL ON THU TO CONTINUE AMPLE
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NE WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT SE
FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S (COOLEST NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER).
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE INTO
IL FRI/SAT AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE TO 588 DECAMETERS OR HIGHER BY
SAT AFTERNOON. SSE WINDS SATURDAY AND MORE SW ON SUNDAY BUT
STILL FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. SKIES BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY OVER CENTRAL IL DURING SAT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN SE
IL AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S (UPPER 70S FROM SPI SW). PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVERALL. HIGHS
75-80F ON SUNDAY AND LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY.
FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE INTO
IL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS COULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE, THOUGH NBM
POPS ARE CURRENTLY 20% OR LESS AND MAINLY ON TUESDAY. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK
COULD SLOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALSO RETURN GULF FLOW
LIMITED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST STATES. TEMPERATURES TO COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK STARTING ON TUESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO IL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AROUND WED NIGHT AND THU WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING FURTHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS WITH
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...AUTEN
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