734
FXUS63 KILX 222319
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
619 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MID NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY SLIM (20% OR LESS), WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING A BIT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE STRETCH OF DRY, LOW-IMPACT WEATHER WILL SPAN INTO NEXT WEEK
AS THE CENTRAL U.S. REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BLOCKING
PATTERN, WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE IDEAL MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WITH DAILY HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. FOR THOSE KEEPING
SCORE AT HOME, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING ABOUT 8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT IS CONSIDERED NORMAL FOR MIDDLE OCTOBER. WHILE
NOT RECORD- WARMTH BY ANY MEANS, IT IS NEVERTHELESS IMPRESSIVE.
MID-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE DEMONSTRATES STRONG
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SUCCESSIVE MODEL CYCLES
CONTINUE TO OPEN AND EJECT THIS FEATURE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CONSISTENTLY FAILS
TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RATHER, THE SURFACE LOW
UNDERGOES OCCLUSION OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, CAUSING THE
TRAILING FRONT TO STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT AND RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
IT'S NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DRIVES A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION,
EFFECTIVELY BREAKING DOWN OUR RESIDENT RIDGE. THIS COULD BE OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CURRENT BLENDED (NBM) AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE (GEFS/EPS) MUTE THE PROBABILITY AT 20% OR LESS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, THEN BECOMING SE 4-8 KTS AFTER 16Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...MJA
DISCUSSION...MJA
AVIATION...37
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