421
FXUS63 KILX 261057
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
557 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES SOLIDIFYING ONE OF THE WARMEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD.
- SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) THURSDAY,
PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 72, OFFERING NO
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF TO ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.
- A PATTERN SHIFT IS FAVORED BY NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY
NOVEMBER, BRINGING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN COOLER, BREEZIER, AND
WETTER WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE WEATHER HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY BORING AS OF LATE. THIS DRY
AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE THE RIDGING STARTS TO SEE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
RIPPLE WILL BRING A WEAK FRONT TO DIP DOWN NEAR CENTRAL IL ON
THURSDAY, THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH FRIDAY, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF I-72. HOWEVER, IT COULD PASS WITHOUT ANY
ACTIVITY DUE TO HOW DRY OUR AIRMASS IS. AS OF NOW, THERE IS A
10-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
A SECOND, STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING A 30-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL, BUT THERE IS TIME FOR THIS
FORECAST TO CHANGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EXACTLY AGREE ON TIMING
OR STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A LESS
DEFINED DISTURBANCE PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO MODEL
HAS A MUCH STRONGER, DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY. TIMING/LOCATION/AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT AS WE MOVE CLOSER. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE SEEING
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S, NEARING 80 IN SOME PLACES LATER IN THE WEEK. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER STARTING
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. "COOLER" IN THIS SENSE MEANS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S FOR HIGHS. NORMALS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IS AROUND 61-65 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL.
THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY, 8-14 DAY, AND WEEK 3-4 OUTLOOKS ALL SHOW ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. THIS
WILL BE PAIRED WITH BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...COPPLE
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