366
FGUS73 KIND 141646
ESFIND
INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-031-035-045-055-057-059-063-065-
067-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-133-135-
139-145-153-157-159-165-167-171-191700-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1246 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER THREE FOR
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN INDIANA...
THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK COVERING MID-MARCH THROUGH MID-MAY
FOR THE WHITE, WABASH, AND EAST FORK WHITE RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES IS NEAR NORMAL SOUTH OF I-70 AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
NORTH OF I-70. A NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RISK MEANS
THAT MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT TIMES ON THE WABASH, LOWER
WHITE, AND EAST FORK WHITE, WITH ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING
POSSIBLE. THIS IS AN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD RISK THROUGH MID-MAY,
BUT REMEMBER THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY PARTICULAR
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A LOCALLY ENHANCED SHORT TERM FLOOD RISK, AND
THIS IS A CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.
OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS, PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE RANGED FROM AROUND 70 PERCENT TO
130 PERCENT OF NORMAL, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN THE 90 TO
110 PERCENT RANGE. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST 14 DAYS VARIED FROM HALF AN INCH TO THREE INCHES WITH A FEW
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS INDIANA IS BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS NO SNOW
DEPTH OR RIVER ICE IN THE STATE. SEVEN DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW IS
CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL STREAMFLOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW IN THE WABASH BASIN.
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOWS PRECIPITATION TOTALS
OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR SO OVER THE OHIO RIVER INCREASING
HEADING NORTH, WITH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA EXPECTED
TO SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES. MOST OF THIS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MINOR FLOODING TO PARTS OF AREA RIVERS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
WILL PRESENT A LOCALLY HIGHER SHORT TERM FLOOD RISK. THE 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES A LEAN TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 90 DAY SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH
THROUGH MAY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUANCE,
SHOWING A LEAN TOWARD BOTH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS NO RIVER ICE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THUS NO
RISK OF ICE JAM FLOODING THIS SPRING.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:BIG BLUE RIVER
SHELBYVILLE 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 31 31 19 19 <5 <5
:DRIFTWOOD RIVER
EDINBURGH 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 54 64 20 25 <5 <5
:EAGLE CREEK
ZIONSVILLE 9.0 11.0 15.0 : 10 18 7 10 <5 <5
:EAST FORK WHITE RIVER
COLUMBUS 9.0 14.0 16.0 : 32 33 <5 <5 <5 <5
RIVERVALE 20.0 30.0 35.0 : 64 68 6 10 <5 <5
BEDFORD 20.0 27.0 32.0 : 48 52 10 13 <5 <5
SEYMOUR 12.0 17.0 19.0 : 76 91 26 26 <5 <5
SHOALS 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 24 36 11 16 <5 <5
WILLIAMS 8.0 14.0 20.0 : 53 61 11 17 <5 <5
:EEL RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 55 60 20 22 <5 6
:FLATROCK RIVER
COLUMBUS 11.0 15.0 19.0 : 51 38 6 <5 <5 <5
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
VERNON 17.0 27.0 32.0 : 20 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SUGAR CREEK
CRAWFORDSVILLE 15.0 17.0 21.0 : 14 23 <5 16 <5 8
:TIPPECANOE RIVER
DELPHI 8.0 12.0 15.0 : 28 44 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WABASH RIVER
COVINGTON 16.0 24.0 29.0 : 83 92 13 18 <5 <5
HUTSONVILLE LEGAC 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 92 >95 15 20 <5 <5
LAFAYETTE 11.0 18.0 26.0 : 86 93 21 30 <5 <5
MOUNT CARMEL 19.0 25.0 32.0 : 71 81 32 43 <5 <5
MONTEZUMA 14.0 24.0 31.0 : 92 >95 23 24 <5 <5
RIVERTON 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 91 >95 27 30 <5 <5
TERRE HAUTE 16.5 24.5 30.0 : 90 93 26 17 <5 <5
VINCENNES 16.0 22.0 28.0 : 61 78 22 25 <5 <5
:WHITE RIVER
ANDERSON 10.0 15.0 19.0 : 21 32 6 6 <5 <5
EAGLE VALLEY POWE 603.0 607.0 610.0 : 36 48 <5 10 <5 <5
CENTERTON 12.0 16.0 19.0 : 35 46 <5 10 <5 <5
ELLISTON 18.0 25.0 29.0 : 79 86 17 22 <5 <5
EDWARDSPORT 15.0 22.0 25.0 : 80 89 17 23 <5 <5
HAZLETON 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 82 86 22 30 <5 6
INDIANAPOLIS 16.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MUNCIE 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 10 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
NOBLESVILLE 14.0 19.0 22.0 : 23 39 6 7 <5 <5
NORA 11.0 16.0 19.0 : 23 38 7 8 <5 <5
NEWBERRY 13.0 19.0 24.0 : 64 78 19 33 <5 <5
PETERSBURG 16.0 23.5 26.0 : 83 84 25 27 7 6
RAVENSWOOD 6.0 10.0 12.0 : 29 47 7 8 <5 <5
SPENCER 14.0 20.0 24.0 : 51 80 9 18 <5 <5
:WILDCAT CREEK
LAFAYETTE 10.0 15.0 19.5 : 57 59 17 21 8 9
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BIG BLUE RIVER
SHELBYVILLE 7.0 7.9 9.4 10.5 13.8 16.7 17.3
:DRIFTWOOD RIVER
EDINBURGH 5.2 7.3 8.9 11.4 13.6 14.8 15.1
:EAGLE CREEK
ZIONSVILLE 2.5 2.8 3.7 4.3 5.5 9.0 12.1
:EAST FORK WHITE RIVER
COLUMBUS 1.5 2.3 3.5 7.0 9.8 12.2 13.4
RIVERVALE 12.3 14.1 18.7 21.7 24.9 29.2 30.2
BEDFORD 10.0 12.2 16.1 19.8 22.4 27.0 29.4
SEYMOUR 8.1 9.8 12.1 15.5 17.0 17.9 18.4
SHOALS 6.7 7.3 10.5 15.0 19.6 25.5 28.7
WILLIAMS 3.7 4.5 6.2 8.2 10.2 14.2 16.6
:EEL RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 8.6 11.0 12.9 15.5 19.3 21.4 21.7
:FLATROCK RIVER
COLUMBUS 6.0 6.9 8.5 11.1 12.9 14.4 15.1
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
VERNON 5.1 5.7 7.5 11.4 15.8 19.2 22.2
:SUGAR CREEK
CRAWFORDSVILLE 5.6 6.5 7.9 9.6 12.4 16.0 16.3
:TIPPECANOE RIVER
DELPHI 4.3 4.7 5.7 6.7 8.2 9.5 11.0
:WABASH RIVER
COVINGTON 13.6 15.1 17.0 19.2 22.7 24.3 25.2
HUTSONVILLE LEGAC 14.5 16.8 18.2 20.1 23.2 24.4 24.9
LAFAYETTE 8.7 10.6 12.1 14.5 17.6 19.3 21.5
MOUNT CARMEL 12.5 14.6 18.6 21.5 26.4 28.4 29.4
MONTEZUMA 12.7 15.1 17.6 21.0 23.8 25.2 27.2
RIVERTON 12.6 15.6 16.9 18.8 22.3 23.7 24.3
TERRE HAUTE 13.8 16.6 18.2 21.2 24.6 25.9 26.5
VINCENNES 10.5 12.7 14.3 17.3 21.7 23.5 24.2
:WHITE RIVER
ANDERSON 5.9 6.3 7.3 8.6 9.6 11.0 16.5
EAGLE VALLEY POWE 596.9 597.7 599.8 601.5 604.2 605.8 606.8
CENTERTON 3.4 4.7 7.6 9.9 13.4 15.2 15.9
ELLISTON 12.5 15.7 18.8 21.5 24.0 25.8 26.4
EDWARDSPORT 10.4 12.8 16.2 18.6 20.5 23.2 23.5
HAZLETON 11.7 13.6 18.2 20.8 23.4 26.2 27.2
INDIANAPOLIS 6.2 6.8 7.9 9.5 10.7 13.7 15.6
MUNCIE 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.3 8.0 8.9 11.5
NOBLESVILLE 7.2 8.2 9.3 11.3 13.6 17.1 19.8
NORA 5.2 5.9 7.1 9.1 10.7 13.5 17.7
NEWBERRY 6.2 8.2 11.6 14.8 17.9 20.8 21.4
PETERSBURG 11.1 13.6 18.7 21.0 23.6 25.5 26.2
RAVENSWOOD 1.8 2.3 3.4 5.1 6.2 8.0 11.3
SPENCER 6.5 7.0 11.0 14.1 17.3 19.9 20.9
:WILDCAT CREEK
LAFAYETTE 6.6 7.3 8.9 10.4 12.4 17.5 22.4
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BIG BLUE RIVER
SHELBYVILLE 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7
:DRIFTWOOD RIVER
EDINBURGH 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9
:EAGLE CREEK
ZIONSVILLE 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
:EAST FORK WHITE RIVER
RIVERVALE 6.4 6.1 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.1
BEDFORD 4.3 3.8 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1
SEYMOUR 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4
SHOALS 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.9
WILLIAMS 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7
:EEL RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9
:FLATROCK RIVER
COLUMBUS 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0
:MUSCATATUCK RIVER
VERNON 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3
:SUGAR CREEK
CRAWFORDSVILLE 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1
:TIPPECANOE RIVER
DELPHI 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2
:WABASH RIVER
COVINGTON 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.6 4.3
HUTSONVILLE LEGAC 7.1 6.6 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.4
LAFAYETTE 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6
MOUNT CARMEL 6.9 6.0 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.2 3.2
MONTEZUMA 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.6
RIVERTON 5.4 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.6
TERRE HAUTE 6.1 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.6
VINCENNES 5.0 4.7 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7
:WHITE RIVER
ANDERSON 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8
EAGLE VALLEY POWE 594.7 594.6 594.5 594.3 594.2 594.1 594.1
ELLISTON 8.4 7.6 7.0 6.3 5.8 5.3 4.2
EDWARDSPORT 6.3 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.2
HAZLETON 6.2 5.5 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.4 2.1
INDIANAPOLIS 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2
MUNCIE 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
NOBLESVILLE 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7
NORA 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7
NEWBERRY 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6
PETERSBURG 5.7 5.1 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.4
RAVENSWOOD 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
SPENCER 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2
:WILDCAT CREEK
LAFAYETTE 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE, WHICH WILL SOON BE TRANSITIONING TO NATIONAL WATER
PREDICTION SERVICES.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/IND FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION. FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/IND/SPRINGHYDROLOGICOUTLOOK.
THIS IS THE FINAL OUTLOOK FOR 2024.
CP
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