286
FXUS63 KIND 160800
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND BACK TO THE 60S BEGINS SUNDAY
- WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH NEXT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR FIRST SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY STAGNANT THE PAST 24 HOURS AS
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUCK OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
WITH REPORTS OF CEILINGS AROUND 2000-2500FT AGL. ACARS SOUNDINGS
FROM AROUND THE REGION REVEAL THE STRATUS IS STUCK UNDER A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE.
THE LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR STRUGGLES TO HEAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ENOUGH TO BREAK THE INVERSION AND LIFT THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA. DUE TO SUCH A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH HEAVY CLOUD COVER,
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE ONLY SEEN A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 3 DEGREES IN MANY SPOTS, WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE UPPER
40S. THIS SAME PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS TODAY.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGING PUSHING NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE COLUMN. INCREASING
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY WORK TO ERODE SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN INDIANA.
STILL THINKING GUIDANCE MAY BE PUSHING OUT CLOUD COVER TOO QUICKLY
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS AROUND THE NBM25TH
PERCENTILE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION RESULTING IN LITTLE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S AREAWIDE WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN SW
INDIANA. THESE NUMBERS STILL MAY BE TOO WARM FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST INDIANA IF CLOUDS DO NOT BREAK UP BY THE EVENING.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUED RIDGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY AS
THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
BAJA PENINSULA INTO THE PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CANADA WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SYSTEM IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPECTED OF A SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GREATER IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM GRADIENT WINDS TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 4KFT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS TO AROUND 30-40 MPH. TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE
TUESDAY SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN ON THE BACKEND OF THE EXITING FIRST
SYSTEM. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON THE DAYTIME
HIGHS FOR THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS INCREASING PROBABILITIES THAT HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 30S. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TO SEE SNOW FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW ON THE PRECIPITATION ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. LOOKING TO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND THE
PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO BECOME QUIETER WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
IMPACTS:
- MVFR CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING, SLOWING LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CIGS AROUND 2000FT AGL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF THEM LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS IN
SOME SPOTS NEAR SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KLAF, KHUF, AND KBMG
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE; HOWEVER WITH THICK STRATUS AROUND, NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY, EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT AND BREAK UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
CALM TO VERY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST 6-11 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...CM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page