125
FXUS63 KIND 172336
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
636 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
- MUCH COLDER WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE YEAR THURSDAY
- BREEZY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
A PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA,
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT, WILL SINK INTO NORTHWEST CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST. WILL ADD A SPRINKLES MENTION THERE. OTHERWISE, CENTRAL INDIANA
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
THIS EVENING, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THE AREA OF SPRINKLES SHOULD STAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPRINKLES MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE SPRINKLES MENTION NORTHWEST BUT DRY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING FOR NOW.
OVERNIGHT, WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SYSTEM STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL USA.
GIVEN THE WEAK LIFT, WILL ONLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS BEFORE 12Z. CLOUDS
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER AND IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR LOWS.
AS THE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL USA STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTH MONDAY,
850MB FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER,
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA,
CLOSER TO THE MAIN SYSTEM. THUS, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS. THE FAR WEST MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR A PERIOD OF LIKELY CATEGORY POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS
MONDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
BAJA PENINSULA INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO CLUSTER ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH A SHARP NORTHERLY TRACK TO THE LOW WHICH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL ALL BUT MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST PART
OF THE SYSTEM WILL FALL DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GREATER IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FROM GRADIENT WINDS TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS TO AROUND 4KFT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE MIXING DOWN OF WINDS TO
AROUND 25-35 MPH. TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE TUESDAY SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND DEEP CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS AND A MUCH STRONGER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO INTEGRATE SOME OF
THE WARMER AND HIGHER PWAT AIR IN A SYSTEM THAT TYPICALLY WOULD BE
STARVED OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE BASED ON THE TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD.
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO BOTH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES
OF THE YEAR WITH THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST (32-35) WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM GROUND TEMPS
SHOULD LIMIT/ELIMINATE ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WITH DECENT NEAR SURFACE
LAPSE RATES THERE MAY BE SHORT PERIODS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY
OVERCOME THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT THE BULK
OF THE FORCING MAY EXIT BEFORE THE NEAR SURFACE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL. MODELS ARE ALSO STILL SHOWING QUITE A
DISCONNECT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
DOESN'T USUALLY LINE UP WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A DREARY AND
COLD DAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 40. LOCALIZED LOCATIONS
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY HAVE HIGHER GUSTS THAT COULD
APPROACH 40-45 MPH. LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD COLDER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WHICH WILL FAVOR
THE CLEARING OUT OF THE NEAR SURFACE STRATUS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
IMPACTS:
- MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
- IFR POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN SITES MONDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z OR SO THEN MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT SETS UP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. IFR IS
POSSIBLE AT KHUF/KBMG LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY BEFORE 21Z.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOME TERMINALS MAY GO CALM FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND 5KT WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER IN THE EVENING TO
AROUND 10KT MAINTAINING THEIR SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD INDUCE A POTENT LOW-LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP JUST AFTER END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AND SOME LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...ECKHOFF
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