124
FXUS63 KIND 161957
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
257 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
- RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
- COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY ONWARD
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE MORE STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING HOWEVER AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
6PM OR SO. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, MAINLY NEAR OR NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...
EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT ONCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THESE LIGHT WINDS
COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, IN THE LOW-
MID 30S, THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINANT WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. EXPECT LIGHT W/SW FLOW DURING THE DAY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AIDED BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. DESPITE
THE SLIGHT COOLDOWN, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF RAINFALL
MAINLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, AS A CONTINUED
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MOVES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH, BUT A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION THREAT, THOUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MAY SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES BORDERLINE ENOUGH FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A TRACE OF ICING ON PRIMARILY ELEVATED
SURFACES. THIS THREAT IS LOW, HOWEVER.
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THAT
CLIPPER, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT. THE
BULK OF SNOW TENDS TO REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WITH
THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS, WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH OF IT NORTH OF THE
AREA, THOUGH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING
ANOTHER FEW FLAKES ON SATURDAY, BUT THIS IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN.
THE COLDEST AIR WITH THIS NEXT ARCTIC SHOT WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF,
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY MODERATING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGHLY
COMPLEX BUT MORE QUASIZONAL PATTERN AS THE HOLIDAY APPROACHES.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
IMPACTS:
-IFR/MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
-STEADY RAIN ENDING BY 18-19Z WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
-WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
-IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION:
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND THEN
IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWS STEADY
STRATIFORM RAIN IS NOW EXITING THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER, ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATER TODAY.
STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TAPER OFF BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ONCE WINDS BECOME LIGHT, BUT
IMPACTFUL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...MELO
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