384
FXUS63 KIND 170219
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
919 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
- RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
- COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY ONWARD
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
- MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLDER OVERNIGHT
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
TO CENTRAL KY AND WESTERN TN. HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER KS/OK.
GOES16 SHOWS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST
CENTRAL INDIANA, EXITING SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND IL AND
WESTERN CENTRAL INDIANA. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA WAS RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT, THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BUILD EASTWARD,
PUSHING TO WESTERN KY. MEANWHILE ALOFT, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
IN PLAY AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER IL AND BUILDING ACROSS MOST
OF INDIANA. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
THESE FEATURE ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN OUR WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS UPSTREAM IN THE LOWER 30S,
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WILL BE EXPECTED. OVERALL,
ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE MORE STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING HOWEVER AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
6PM OR SO. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, MAINLY NEAR OR NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT...
EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT ONCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THESE LIGHT WINDS
COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, IN THE LOW-
MID 30S, THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINANT WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. EXPECT LIGHT W/SW FLOW DURING THE DAY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AIDED BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. DESPITE
THE SLIGHT COOLDOWN, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF RAINFALL
MAINLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, AS A CONTINUED
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MOVES ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH, BUT A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION THREAT, THOUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MAY SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES BORDERLINE ENOUGH FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A TRACE OF ICING ON PRIMARILY ELEVATED
SURFACES. THIS THREAT IS LOW, HOWEVER.
STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THAT
CLIPPER, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT. THE
BULK OF SNOW TENDS TO REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WITH
THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS, WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH OF IT NORTH OF THE
AREA, THOUGH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND COULD BRING
ANOTHER FEW FLAKES ON SATURDAY, BUT THIS IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN.
THE COLDEST AIR WITH THIS NEXT ARCTIC SHOT WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF,
WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY MODERATING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGHLY
COMPLEX BUT MORE QUASIZONAL PATTERN AS THE HOLIDAY APPROACHES.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 642 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
IMPACTS:
- IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 02Z-04Z.
DISCUSSION:
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIT THE BMG AND IND AREAS BY 00Z-02Z,
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. INDIANA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A COOL
FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THIS DURING THIS PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW A DRY COLUMN ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCER.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...PUMA
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