804
FXUS63 KIND 250546
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
146 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
- MORE LIGHT RAIN AROUND ON TUESDAY
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM
FRIDAY-SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING LATE THIS WEEK...SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. FIRST WAS TO TIGHTEN UP
THE POPS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR FROM KIND, BUT THUS FAR, THAT PRECIP IS
NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO WORK
THROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THAT THE RAIN IS FALLING
BACK IN ILLINOIS STILL.
THE SECOND ADJUSTMENT HAS TO DO WITH TWEAKING DEW POINTS WHICH
REMAIN NEAR 20 TO 25 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND ARE
STRUGGLING TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS IT'S WAY IN. HIGHEST
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE SW WHERE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS AND WHERE
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING BRINGING DOWN
SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. OVERALL THE TREND WILL BE FOR LOWERING
GUST SPEEDS THOUGH. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
TONIGHT...
THE EVENING WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH. HOWEVER, A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN A TIGHT CONFIGURATION, MEANING A SHARP CUTOFF
TO THE NORTHEAST FROM RAIN TO NO RAIN. WILL CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO A
SMALLER AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S NORTHEAST WHERE THINNER
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THICKER
CLOUDS AND THE RAIN/HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
TUESDAY...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE INITIAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME UPPER ENERGY AND AN UPPER JET WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE BEST FORCING AND THUS BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SYSTEM'S BEST FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY COMPACT, SO HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALLER AREA. WILL GO TOWARD
THE HIGH END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE HIGHEST POPS, AND WILL
TREND TO THE WEAK CONSENSUS OF MID-AFTERNOON AS THE PEAK OF THE
POPS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THIS TIMING COULD CHANGE BY A FEW HOURS
AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
AGAIN, WITH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN, BUT FORECAST HIGHS
MAY CHANGE SOME DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE RAIN.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
BROAD BUT RATHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUPY MUCH OF THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS UNDER A LONG-WAVE ZONAL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS TO MID-ATLANTIC. DECENT
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE ENERGY INTO THE EARLY WEEK WILL PROMOTE AT TIMES
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND STRAY RAIN SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BIGGER STORY WILL BE STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES MAINTAINING SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS...BEFORE A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY
BEGINS A MODERATING TREND AND SUPPLIES AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH PM HOURS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE A PRONOUNCED CONFLUENT UPPER PATTERN SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...SLOWLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ITS CORRESPONDING ELONGATED WARM FRONTAL
ZONE NUDGING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO
HOME PERSISTENT ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS,
AMID THE PLAINS' SYSTEMS' WARM SECTOR, WILL PUMP IN UNSEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS AND EVENTUALLY A BIT OF LATE SPRING HUMIDITY WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PROBABLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
GREATER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AS THE PLAINS SYSTEM FINALLY FINDS SOME UPPER FORCING TO EJECT THE
CIRCULATION TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY BRINGS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.25 INCHES WITH A POTENT SHORT
WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THESE
FACTORS WILL COMBINE WITH INORDINATE BULK SHEAR TO PRESENT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AROUND THE SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. WHILE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY, PERHAPS A
GREATER POTENTIAL MITIGATING INFLUENCE WOULD BE EXTENSIVE STORM
INITIATION JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION. WHILE ALL OF THESE DETAILS AND
MORE WILL BE REINED THROUGH THE WEEK, AT THE VERY LEAST HEAVY RAINS
AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO END WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE NORMAL MAX/MIN AT INDIANAPOLIS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM IS 57/37.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
IMPACTS:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION:
MAINLY VMC EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EVEN WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AROUND TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER MISSOURI WITHIN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. VFR
CLOUDS EXTEND FROM ALBERTA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA,
UNDER THE NORTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SO
KEEPING CIGS VFR AS ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY HAVE
HIGHER BASES AND BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. BEST THREAT FOR ANY
SHOWERS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE AT KBMG AND KHUF
AND POINTS SOUTHWEST AS THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF A LIGHTNING
STRIKE THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER NOT INCLUDING IT IN THE OFFICIAL TAF
AS LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THIS OCCURRENCE AND EXACT LOCATIONS.
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND OR LESS
THAN 10 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...CM
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