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FXUS63 KIND 271910
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
310 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT, WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS
- FREQUENT WIND GUSTS FRIDAY OF 35-45 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE
- HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS FRIDAY, WITH CONTINUED WARMTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA, ALONG WITH MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY, ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING, IN THE AREA AND POINTS WEST,
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE INTENSIFYING
WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS HAS LIMITED THE ABILITY OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND,
ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE FRONT THEY ARE.
THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION,
ALONG WITH A REINTENSIFYING WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 35-45KT LOW LEVEL
JET. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE, THOUGH CONVECTION
IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED. THIS WILL LIMIT THREATS FROM
SCATTERED STORMS LATER TONIGHT TO BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CORES, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING OF
COURSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WINDS FOR FRIDAY, IN WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY
WARM, IF NOT NEAR RECORD, DAY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3-5KFT WILL BE QUITE STRONG, AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
REMAINS 50+KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
CLEARING AND DEPTH OF MIXING, A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF THIS
MOMENTUM MAY BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, AND FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-
45 MPH APPEAR LIKELY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AND DEPENDING UPON
GUIDANCE TRENDS, A WIND HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
WILL MESSAGE WITH AN SPS AND OTHER VENUES AS APPROPRIATE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH GOOD INSOLATION, STRONG WARM
ADVECTION, AND WHAT SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S, AND PERHAPS PUSH 80 IN SPOTS. RECORD
HIGHS FOR THE DAY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS WILL FALL A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES SHY OF THOSE
NUMBERS, BUT COULD EASILY REACH THEM IN SPOTS IF HIGHS
OVERPERFORMING.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHICH MAY LEAD TO INCREASED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS INDIANA WILL FIRMLY BE IN THE SYSTEM'S WARM
SECTOR.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND DETAILS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN BORDER. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON
THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE
OVERALL PATTERN RATHER THAN THE SMALL DETAILS THAT COULD HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, IN ALL MODEL SCENARIOS INDIANA IS WITHIN THE
SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR WITH A POTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JET STREAK
OVERHEAD OR NEARBY. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT
SHEAR (OVER 50KT) FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. HODOGRAPHS ARE GENERALLY LONG AND STRAIGHT AS SURFACE
WINDS ARE MAINLY DEPICTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON
CURRENT INFORMATION, WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ON
SUNDAY, WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. TORNADOES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, AS NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS
SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. THE TORNADO THREAT COULD INCREASE SHOULD
THE SYSTEM EVOLVE IN SUCH A WAY THAT LEADS TO INCREASED CURVATURE IN
THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS MODEL CONSENSUS
INCREASES AND THESE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME VISIBLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE AS LONG AS WE'RE IN
THE SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR, BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD AFTER ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY.
MONDAY ONWARD
A PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH MODELED TO ARRIVE MIDWEEK. EVEN GREATER MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS IT TO SOME
EXTENT. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE HIGHER FOR BROAD POPS BUT THAT'S
ABOUT IT. YET ANOTHER TROUGH IS DEPICTED BY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ARRIVING NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WITH STILL LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT WE'LL
JUST LEAVE IT AT THAT. OVERALL, AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE UPON
US WITH REPEATED WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
IMPACTS:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
- CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
- NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
SHOWERS ARE IMPINGING UPON CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IS INHIBITING THE ABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND CONSISTENTLY AT THE MOMENT, SAVE FOR SOUTHWEST OF
THE TAF SITES WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE SHOWERS ARE FOUND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A BIT OF A
LULL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL CARRY PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES IN THE 06-10Z TIME
FRAME FOR HUF/LAF AND THE 07-11Z TIME FRAME FOR IND/BMG FOR THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION.
LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR IN THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT FAR TOO TRANSIENT/UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAF. VFR WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH RESTRICTIONS
MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SITES AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE SURFACE FLOW DOES SO, AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD W/ FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AROUND 2KFT, AND WILL CARRY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN A SIMILAR TIME FRAME TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY, BUT 2KFT WINDS ABOUT 22035KT.
WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE BETWEEN 180-220, GENERALLY AROUND
8-12KT. A GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT TOO INFREQUENT FOR
INCLUSION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT STRENGTHENS, WITH WINDS AGAIN BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND MUCH STRONGER AS MIXING ON
FRIDAY PROMOTES TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM
OF GUSTS POTENTIALLY WELL INTO THE MID 30KT RANGE, FROM AROUND 220
DEGREES.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...NIELD
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