354
FXUS63 KIND 280128
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
907 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, LATE TONIGHT.
- FREQUENT WIND GUSTS FRIDAY OF 35-45 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE
- HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS FRIDAY, WITH CONTINUED WARMTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS A WARM FRONT STRETCHING
FROM NW MO SOUTHEAST TO WESTERN KY. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, OVER SOUTHERN IL AND KY. THE SHOWERS
WERE FLOWING TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING MINIMALLY IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST, AND DRY
AIR REMAINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING MAINLY IN
THE 30S.
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRRR CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD, TRIGGERING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT WE
HAVE YET TO SEE THIS OCCUR AS ECHOS REMAIN STREAMING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AMID NO NEW DEVLOPMENT. THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST 05-06Z. PRECIPITATION LOOKS SPOTTY OVERNIGHT AND
NOT A FULL, SOLID SHIELD. THUS WILL ONLY INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR THE
MOMENT THROUGH 12Z.
GIVEN OUR CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION, WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARRIVING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S SHOULD WORK WELL.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA, ALONG WITH MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY, ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING, IN THE AREA AND POINTS WEST,
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE INTENSIFYING
WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS HAS LIMITED THE ABILITY OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND,
ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE FRONT THEY ARE.
THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION,
ALONG WITH A REINTENSIFYING WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 35-45KT LOW LEVEL
JET. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE, THOUGH CONVECTION
IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED. THIS WILL LIMIT THREATS FROM
SCATTERED STORMS LATER TONIGHT TO BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CORES, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING OF
COURSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WINDS FOR FRIDAY, IN WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY
WARM, IF NOT NEAR RECORD, DAY FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3-5KFT WILL BE QUITE STRONG, AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
REMAINS 50+KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
CLEARING AND DEPTH OF MIXING, A SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION OF THIS
MOMENTUM MAY BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, AND FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-
45 MPH APPEAR LIKELY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AND DEPENDING UPON
GUIDANCE TRENDS, A WIND HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
WILL MESSAGE WITH AN SPS AND OTHER VENUES AS APPROPRIATE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH GOOD INSOLATION, STRONG WARM
ADVECTION, AND WHAT SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S, AND PERHAPS PUSH 80 IN SPOTS. RECORD
HIGHS FOR THE DAY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS WILL FALL A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES SHY OF THOSE
NUMBERS, BUT COULD EASILY REACH THEM IN SPOTS IF HIGHS
OVERPERFORMING.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHICH MAY LEAD TO INCREASED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AS INDIANA WILL FIRMLY BE IN THE SYSTEM'S WARM
SECTOR.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND DETAILS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN BORDER. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON
THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THE
OVERALL PATTERN RATHER THAN THE SMALL DETAILS THAT COULD HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, IN ALL MODEL SCENARIOS INDIANA IS WITHIN THE
SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR WITH A POTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JET STREAK
OVERHEAD OR NEARBY. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT
SHEAR (OVER 50KT) FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. HODOGRAPHS ARE GENERALLY LONG AND STRAIGHT AS SURFACE
WINDS ARE MAINLY DEPICTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON
CURRENT INFORMATION, WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ON
SUNDAY, WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES. TORNADOES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, AS NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS
SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. THE TORNADO THREAT COULD INCREASE SHOULD
THE SYSTEM EVOLVE IN SUCH A WAY THAT LEADS TO INCREASED CURVATURE IN
THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS MODEL CONSENSUS
INCREASES AND THESE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME VISIBLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE AS LONG AS WE'RE IN
THE SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR, BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD AFTER ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY.
MONDAY ONWARD
A PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH MODELED TO ARRIVE MIDWEEK. EVEN GREATER MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS IT TO SOME
EXTENT. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE HIGHER FOR BROAD POPS BUT THAT'S
ABOUT IT. YET ANOTHER TROUGH IS DEPICTED BY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ARRIVING NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WITH STILL LOWER MODEL AGREEMENT WE'LL
JUST LEAVE IT AT THAT. OVERALL, AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE UPON
US WITH REPEATED WEATHER SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH.
AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
IMPACTS:
- MAINLY VFR THIS TAF PERIOD.
- SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
- NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE IN THE PERIOD INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES, FAILING TO IMPACT ANY OF THEM. VFR CIGS REMAINED ACROSS THE
AREA, AS A WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT, A WARM FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HRRR SUGGESTS A WINDOW
OF MAINLY 04Z-11Z PUSHING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. THUS HAVE FOCUSED A VCSH PERIOD AT THAT TIME. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWS DRY LOWER LEVELS, THUS MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL BE
EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE SURFACE FLOW DOES SO, AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD W/ FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AMID SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS, POSSIBLY REACHING TO AROUND
35 KNTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...PUMA
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