831
FXUS63 KIND 281902
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREQUENT WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OF 35-45 MPH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND
- WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. NOW THAT
WE'RE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE SWITCHING FROM SE TO
S BEFORE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SW. SKIES ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO CLEAR,
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CLEARING.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO STRONG WIND GUSTS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING DEEPENS. WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY
AS VALUES CLOSE TO 40-45MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH IS RIGHT NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL. FOR NOW, HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE THAT A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA WILL EXCEED THE 45MPH THRESHOLD FOR LONG
ENOUGH, AND WE WILL CARRY AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT GUST POTENTIAL FOR
NOW.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, CLEARING SKIES, AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH WARMER DAY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN FACT,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
DEGREES POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE, MID TO UPPER 70S
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY INTO THE LOW
60S AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
SATURDAY
A CUT OFF UPPER-WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE WARMER
AIR MASS. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH ENHANCED FORCING FROM
THE UPPER WAVE AND ADVANCING TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH AMOUNTS
AS HIGH AS 1 INCH POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
ALL EYES ARE ON A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK DURING THE
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
A BROAD TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH SWINGS AROUND AND REACHES
INDIANA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED
WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW,
WHICH LOOKS TO BE SITUATED OVER THE CHICAGO AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY. A
STRONGER MODELED LOW HAS RESULTED IN WHAT INITIALLY LOOKED LIKE
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY IN NATURE. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN HODOGRAPHS THAT SHOW MORE CURVATURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS SUCH, THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION.
SEVERE WEATHER DETAILS
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TORNADOES ARE A POTENTIAL HAZARD AS GREATER
TURNING OF WIND WITH HEIGHT IS NOW SHONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE (DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW 60S) ALONG WITH MODEST TO STEEP
NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED AT LEAST
TEMPORALLY AS UPSCALE GROWTH MAY OCCUR QUICKLY DUE TO SHEAR VECTORS
ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE INITIATING BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONALLY, STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)
AND HIGH BULK SHEAR (OVER 50KT) WILL COMBINE WITH TALL CAPE PROFILES
TO ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A HAZARD AS
FAST WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET COULD EASILY BE
MIXED DOWNWARD BY ANY THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES.
FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY TRAINING STORM SITUATIONS.
AS FOR TIMING, GUIDANCE STILL VARIES SOMEWHAT BUT A ROUGH CONSENSUS
OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS NOW TAKING SHAPE.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING COULD BE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN
NORMAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MORNING CONVECTION, WHICH MAY ALTER
THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO HAMPER GUIDANCE. SINCE GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN THE PROCESS OF TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER SURFACE LOW (A TREND
THAT COULD JUST AS EASILY REVERSE), CONFIDENCE IS STILL ONLY
MODERATE REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING. CONFIDENCE WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME AS GUIDANCE HONES IN ON HOW THE VARIOUS FEATURES
EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
MONDAY ONWARD
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PLAINS BY ABOUT MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT VARIATION EXISTS
AMONG VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, SO LITTLE CAN BE SAID ABOUT
PARTICULAR THREATS AND DETAILS AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AND SIGNALS WITHIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WE
CAN SAY THAT THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE, ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH ASSOCIATED FLOODING / RIVER FLOODING
POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED FOR DETAILS AS A MODEL CONSENSUS EMERGES IN
THE COMING DAYS.
OVERALL, THE UPCOMING LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE AND WET, ALONG
WITH NEAR TO ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
IMPACTS:
- VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING; MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- WIND GUSTS OVER 30KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH WELL NORTH OF INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, PLACING THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCT VFR CU, BUT CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN UNLIMITED THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT SHOW THE BEGINNING OF A TOP DOWN
SATURATION AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE ACROSS INDIANA.
IF GUSTS SUBSIDE ENOUGH TONIGHT, LLWS MAY RETURN AS STRONG WINDS
PERSIST ALOFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP SATURATION ARRIVING TOWARD 00Z SUN.
IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN WILL BE HIGHER ALONG
WITH CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ECKHOFF
LONG TERM...ECKHOFF
AVIATION...PUMA
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