085
FXUS63 KIND 290715
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
- WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS
- ADDITIONAL STORMS, STRONG TO SEVERE, POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE AROUND AT TIMES,
PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THESE AREAS.
TODAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. ROUNDS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
FLOW NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE INITIAL FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED WEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST THIS
MORNING WITH LOWER POPS TO THE EAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY AND TOWARD 00Z. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
CATEGORY TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN SOME AREAS BY 00Z.
QUESTIONS REMAIN THOUGH ON WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN DESIRED IN
THE LIKELY POPS THEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A WARM START TODAY, SO EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SOME RAIN AROUND, HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S.
TONIGHT...
FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL AGAIN
GO WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY POPS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE, BUT WILL
TREND TOWARD SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, CLOSER TO THE PATH OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM ITSELF.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND 60 MOST
AREAS IN CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MAIN FOCUS IS ON A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK DURING THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. THEN THERE IS ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
A BROAD TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST AND SHOULD
EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH SWINGS AROUND AND REACHES
INDIANA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE COMBINED
WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THAT AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT EARLIER IN THE
DAY. THAT CAP LOOKS TO BREAK SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING, WHICH IS WHEN STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE OFF.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW,
WHICH LOOKS TO BE SITUATED OVER THE CHICAGO AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY. A
STRONGER MODELED LOW HAS RESULTED IN WHAT INITIALLY LOOKED LIKE
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY IN NATURE. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN HODOGRAPHS THAT SHOW MORE CURVATURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA, INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IN THAT AREA AND GENERALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERAL RECENT RUNS FROM DIFFERENT MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A
WEAKER LOW FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING, BETWEEN
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND SW INDIANA, WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT SOME
INGREDIENTS FURTHER NORTH IN THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, IT'S STILL A BIT SOON TO NAIL DOWN OR
RELY ON APPARENT MESOSCALE FEATURES AT THIS POINT.
SEVERE WEATHER DETAILS
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TORNADOES ARE A POTENTIAL HAZARD AS GREATER
TURNING OF WIND WITH HEIGHT IS NOW SHONE IN MODEL GUIDANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE (DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW 60S) ALONG WITH MODEST TO STEEP
NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED AT LEAST
TEMPORALLY AS UPSCALE GROWTH MAY OCCUR QUICKLY DUE TO SHEAR VECTORS
ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE INITIATING BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONALLY, STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)
AND HIGH BULK SHEAR (OVER 50KT) WILL COMBINE WITH TALL CAPE PROFILES
TO ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A HAZARD AS
FAST WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET COULD EASILY BE
MIXED DOWNWARD BY ANY THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES.
FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY TRAINING STORM SITUATIONS.
AS FOR TIMING, GUIDANCE STILL VARIES SOMEWHAT BUT A ROUGH CONSENSUS
OF SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS NOW TAKING
SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING COULD BE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MORNING CONVECTION,
WHICH MAY ALTER THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO HAMPER GUIDANCE. SINCE
GUIDANCE IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER
SURFACE LOW (A TREND THAT COULD JUST AS EASILY REVERSE), CONFIDENCE
IS STILL ONLY MODERATE REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING.
CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH TIME AS GUIDANCE HONES IN ON HOW THE
VARIOUS FEATURES EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY ONWARD
AFTER A COOLER AND DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS BY ABOUT
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. DECENT VARIATION STILL EXISTS AMONG VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, SO LITTLE CAN BE SAID ABOUT PARTICULAR
THREATS AND DETAILS AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE TROUGH AND SIGNALS WITHIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WE CAN SAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE, ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION, POTENTIALLY A STALLED FRONT WITH TRAINING STORMS
COULD LEAD TO ASSOCIATED FLOODING/ RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL. STAY
TUNED FOR DETAILS AS A MODEL CONSENSUS EMERGES IN THE COMING DAYS.
OVERALL, THE UPCOMING LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE AND WET AS
POPS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH NEAR TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
IMPACTS:
- SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT OVERNIGHT
- SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY MORNING
- MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVING AFTER 22Z SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY,
BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE SPORADIC OVERNIGHT AND UP TO AROUND 20KT.
STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE WILL CREATE NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH AROUND 12Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KT
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...KF/ECKHOFF
AVIATION...50
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