869
FXUS63 KIND 050457
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1257 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY
- LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IN
- ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WARMING TREND
TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
FORECAST UPDATE
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WVA. COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. GOES16 SHOWED
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WAS DUE TO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SW INDIANA AS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. RADAR SHOWS A FEW HAPHAZARD VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON OVERNIGHT, KEEPING CLOUDS AND
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS INDIANA. MORE VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, PASSING WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT.
BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, WITH SMALLEST POPS IN
THE LAF AREA. GIVEN THE CLOUDS, PRECIP AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING THOUGH COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY FROM THIS MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN ALOFT WHICH HAS LED TO A DRY SLOT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. OVERALL FORCING HAS ALSO WEAKENED AIDING IN LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL IMPULSES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVE IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEST FORCING FROM THE
CUTOFF LOW COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MONDAY AFTERNOON IS LIKELY
GOING TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AS SLIGHT DAYTIME HEATING
PROMOTES LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT.
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SWINGS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. LOOK FOR LOWS TO ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT, BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY START CLEARING OUT ALLOWING FOR GREATER DIURNAL HEATING.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A STAGNANT AND BLOCKY
PATTERN FEATURING A COUPLE OF CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS. THE FIRST CUTOFF LOW WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DAMP AND DREARY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DEPART EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD
TO MORE SUNSHINE WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE BLOCKY
PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEK. GENERALLY, GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A REX-BLOCK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MID-LATE WEEK AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE REX-BLOCK
PATTERN WOULD HELP KEEP THE SECOND CLOSED LOW FURTHER SOUTH
RESULTING IN A DRY AND LESS CLOUDY FORECAST. HOWEVER, LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES.
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR SOUTH-
CENTRAL IN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SECOND LOW MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PUSHING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE OF INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY REMAIN STAGNANT IN THE LOW-MID
70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THERE WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THERMAL
ADVECTION OR HEIGHT TENDENCIES. A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND ONCE SUBTLE HEIGHT INCREASES OCCUR.
AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
IMPACTS:
- GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
- CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAYTIME.
DISCUSSION:
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SITES
AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE IFR CEILINGS AT TIMES.. SOME PATCHY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SOME
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING IS
ONLY MEDIUM THOUGH.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...PUMA
SHORT TERM...MELO
LONG TERM...MELO
AVIATION...50
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